- Investors should take some profit after US stocks rallied last month, JPMorgan said on Monday.
- Quant guru Marko Kolanovic said the house is still “risk-friendly” and overweight stocks.
- The investment bank lowered its 2022 S&P 500 outlook to 4,900 from 5,050.
Loading Something is loading.
US stocks have managed to partially recover from large losses so far this year, bringing investors to a point where it’s time to take profits as the prospects of slower economic growth and other perils loom large Market floating, JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist Marko Kolanovic said on Monday.
JPMorgan remains “risk on” and maintains an overweight rating on equities, as it sees support in part from a solid labor market, healthy consumer and corporate balance sheets, and fiscal efforts by several countries to offset some of the pull from high energy prices.
“However, markets have recouped much of their early March sell-off and as such no longer look oversold, while risks to geopolitics, policy tightening and growth remain elevated. As such, we are taking advantage of the tactical increase in our stock OW that was initiated last month,” Kolanovic wrote in the note.
The investment bank lowered its 2022 S&P 500 target to 4,900 from a previous 5,050 as macro and geopolitical shocks coincide with the central bank’s dovish stance. The Federal Reserve, which oversees the world’s largest economy, has launched a series of large and rapid rate hikes in an attempt to bring down high inflation of nearly 8%.
Meanwhile, Russia’s war against Ukraine is in its second month. With Russia being a major producer of commodities, increasing supply concerns have pushed up prices for a wide range of commodities.
“While Fed tightening remains the main headwind, we believe the market still has upside potential. Investor sentiment is extremely bad and positioning very low” and the economy is still “normalizing” after multiple COVID waves. The risks were “largely anticipated and prepared for a possibly more normal second half,” said Kolanovic.
The S&P 500 was around 4,433 on Monday.
JPMorgan reiterated its overweight position in healthcare, given its high margins and reasonable valuations, among other things.
The equity risk-reward ratio is better than sentiment suggests, Kolanovic said, as geopolitical shocks will not dominate markets for long and the Fed’s policy tightening “should not be problematic in the early stages.”
The bank takes into account the yield curve inversion signals for an imminent recession. “[But] in our view, these are not an immediate catalyst for risk mitigation, but rather a pre-warning that the cycle is drawing to a close.”
A one-month chart of the performance of the S&P 500 as of April 11, 2022 Markets Insider