But Putin’s plan seems to have failed in one important respect: the war has united the West against Moscow in a way that seemed unimaginable in January.
Finland is expected to present a report on the country’s security policies this week, a key step on the road to becoming a nation that may be a candidate for NATO.
This report is expected to spark discussions in the Finnish Parliament on whether to seek membership of the alliance – discussions which Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said she hopes will be completed “before midsummer”.
Finland’s Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said on Monday it was “important” that neighboring Sweden undertake a “similar process” which he expects will take some time. “But of course we’re constantly exchanging information, and if we make similar decisions, hopefully we could make them around the same time.”
Sweden is holding elections later this year in which NATO is likely to be a key campaign issue, with mainstream parties possibly not objecting to joining the alliance.
Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson did not rule out membership in an interview with SVT at the end of March. Sweden is conducting a security policy analysis, which should be completed by the end of May, and the government is expected to announce its position after this report, a Swedish official told CNN. They said their nation may release their position sooner depending on when neighboring Finland does so.
Public opinion in both countries has changed significantly since the invasion, and NATO allies and officials are broadly supportive of the two countries’ accession. The only serious objection might come from Hungary, whose leader is close to Putin, but Nato officials believe it could twist Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s arm.
Given that Putin started his war by demanding that NATO restore its borders to where they were in the 1990s, the fact that this is even contemplated represents a diplomatic disaster for Moscow. If anything, it is a particular one If Finland were to join, Putin would find that Russia suddenly shares an additional 830-mile border with NATO.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov warned on Monday that NATO expansion would not bring more stability to Europe.
“We have repeatedly said that the alliance itself is more of a tool for confrontation. This is not an alliance that offers peace and stability, and further strengthening the alliance will of course not lead to more stability on the European continent,” he said.
Rob Bauer, the head of NATO’s military committee, told reporters on Tuesday that the alliance is not ruling out new members but said it would ultimately be up to Finland and Sweden to decide whether to join, Reuters reported.
“It’s a sovereign choice for any nation that wants to join NATO to apply for membership, which they haven’t done before…We’re not forcing anyone into NATO,” Bauer said.
Nor has Putin’s invasion motivated Ukraine to retreat from its desire for closer integration with the West. While the country is unlikely to join NATO, its efforts to join the European Union have accelerated since the war began. This would take a very long time and could also face fierce opposition from Hungary, which is already in a nasty fight with Brussels over its rule of law violations, prompting the EU to propose suspending Budapest’s central funding.
But again, the fact that it is being talked about and the level of support among EU leaders and officials is another indication of how united the West has become against Russia.
It is worth noting that since the war began, the West has remained largely cohesive in its response to Russia, whether through economic sanctions or military support to Ukraine.
However, there are some challenges ahead that will test just how united this alliance against Russia really is.
First, if it turns out that Russia has used chemical weapons in Ukraine, the West, and NATO in particular, will be under enormous pressure to take an even more active role in the war – something the Alliance has so far been reluctant to do.
NATO members have already discussed red lines and what actions should be taken in case of chemical weapons, but these details are still confidential to prevent Russia from taking preventive protective measures.
However, any NATO intervention would almost certainly lead to a less stable security situation in Europe, as the West would risk a military confrontation with Russia – a nuclear power that would likely respond by intensifying its attacks on Ukraine and possibly other traditional areas Russian influence.
Second, the cost-of-living crisis in many European countries could soon test the unity of future Western sanctions against Russia and embargoes on Russian energy.
In the end, if Western Europe’s economy is deemed more important than holding Russia accountable for the war against its peaceful neighbor, then Putin could, to some extent, get away with invading an innocent country.
But now that that unity is largely in place, it’s clear that Putin’s desire to belittle the Western alliance has backfired – and that the strongman has secured his nation’s pariah status, possibly for years to come.
Jennifer Hansler contributed to this report from Washington.