In the last few days between Russia and Kazakhstan – former iron allies increasingly at odds – there were a number of diplomatic back and forth Without precedents. A rebound of accusations that well describes the air that prevailed in the region afterwards the Russian invasion of Ukraine it upset the previous geopolitical balance. The background happened in August when Ukraine’s ambassador to Kazakhstan gave an explosive interview in which he went so far as to say: “The more Russians we kill now, the less our children have to kill”. After this release To fly she would have expected expulsion Astana of the diplomatic representative, which the Kazakh government has carefully dispensed with in order to underline the growing distance to a Russia that is increasingly rejected internationally. After a few weeks of impasse, two days ago the Kremlin decided to call the Kazakh ambassador to Moscow precisely to protest the non-departure of the Ukrainian official. The Central Asian Republic’s diplomatic counter-offensive was not long in coming: the spokesman for the Astana Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in fact, stated that Russia’s position was not that of an ally that should be considered a “strategic partner”. For Putin, the joke also comes: It seems that the Ukrainian ambassador is actually about to be replaced, but on the basis of what the Kazakh speaker has defined “Full alignment with Kyiv on this front”.
This is the chronicle of the dispute between law firms, accompanied by the growing one in the social sphere influx of Russian citizens who come to Kazakhstan to avoid forced recruitment in the national armed forces. The latest figures from the Interior Ministry of the Central Asian Republic show that approx 200 thousand people entered Kazakh territory from Russia in the last two weeks. During the same period, about 150,000 Russians left the country, most likely moving to other regional republics such as Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. the Kazakh leader, Tokayev, explained that arriving citizens of the Federation who do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan will not be deported unless they are on the international wanted list. Another blow to Moscow, but accompanied by an announcement that it intends to open an institutional dialogue table with the Russian government to discuss the very issue. On the other hand, this large influx could represent an earthquake for the already fragile societal context of Kazakhstan – and that of other Central Asian countries – for example due to theincreased housing costs or the local banks’ problems in coping with the large and sudden demand for liquidity, as happened in Tajikistan.
On the political front, Tokayev is now speaking openly about the ongoing conflict in Ukraine “Large Scale Warfare” and at every useful opportunity she reaffirms the importance of safeguarding her country’s national integrity. The latter is a reference that the President of Kazakhstan also uses thanks to the support received Xi Jinping during his recent official visit to Kazakhstan – his first trip abroad since the outbreak of the pandemic – during which the Chinese leader declared his willingness to do so Beijing to assist the Government of the Central Asian Republic in defending its territorial integrity. A very clear indication of the not too veiled threats made in the past by high-ranking Russian politicians. It’s clear how that China to get closer and closer to the governments of the region, also on a political and economic level. Evidence of this is Kazakhstan’s (and Uzbekistan’s) recent no vote at the UN, following previous abstentions, on a resolution to hold a debate on the human rights situation in the country Xinjiang. The relationship with China, however, is a proximity that Tokayev is apparently not satisfied with. Conscious of the need to keep intact the international economic attractiveness of Kazakhstan – very rich in natural resources – the successor of Nazarbayev Efforts are being made to strengthen Kazakh trade relations. On his last trip to the United States for example, to attend the UN General Assembly, a round of meetings was held with representatives of large US companies, including Microsoft, JP Morgan and General Electric.
With a view to other regional actors such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the turbulence in the former Kremlin backyard is becoming more and more present. Relations between the two smaller and poorer Central Asian republics have always been very strained due to border and water issues. They signed up in mid-September very violent clashes which they left on the ground dozens of victims, a fire followed by a fragile respite. Confirmation came yesterday that the Kyrgyz leader, Yaparovwill not participate in the Summit of the CSI next week and St Pietroburgo. The reason is the simultaneous participation of the Tajik President, creamthe regional leader closest to Russian positions, who will be rewarded by Putin during the event for making sure “Regional Stability and Security”. Too strong a slap in the face, even for the president of a country whose economy is heavily dependent on Russia. As if the Kremlin leaseholder is now making every step wrong, even in a region on which he had an influence that can hardly be overestimated until a few months ago. All for the benefit of China in particular.