Russia is preparing a massive new offensive in eastern Ukraine in hopes of reversing its fate on the battlefield after a disastrous start to the seven-week war.
A long convoy of combat vehicles has blocked highways in northeastern Ukraine in preparation for an attack that could begin within days, and the Kremlin has appointed a general known for directing Moscow’s campaign in Syria.
A look at Russia’s military goals and challenges.
A FORBIDDEN LIGHTNING
A failed Russian attempt to storm Kyiv and other major cities took a heavy toll in personnel and equipment, boosted morale in Ukraine and allowed it to garner broad international support.
“The myth of the invincibility of the Russian military as the second most powerful in the world was shattered, to the great surprise of the Ukrainians themselves,” Ukrainian military expert Oleh Zhdanov told The Associated Press.
The flow of Western arms into Ukraine and growing popular resistance to Russian aggression will further increase Moscow’s war costs.
President Vladimir Putin desperately needs a quick victory on the battlefield to find a way out of what is increasingly looking like a disastrous quagmire.
Russia’s focus is on Ukraine’s industrial heartland, known as Donbass, where Moscow-backed separatists have been battling Ukrainian government forces since conflict there erupted shortly after the Kremlin’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula in 2014.
“Russia lost face both politically and militarily in the first round,” Zhdanov said. “It did all sorts of stupid things in the careless hope of lightning… but it’s going to make the Russian attack even more angry in the next round.”
RECONCENTRATION AND IMPLEMENTATION
After retreating from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy, Russian forces withdrew to the territory of Belarus, Moscow’s ally, and areas of western Russia to be rearmed and supplied for the new offensive.
Retired British General Sir Richard Barrons estimated that the Russians “probably lost about 25% of the ground forces they started with, in the sense that they are units that are no longer combat-capable”.
The story goes on
“So they fuse ’em, retool ’em, reinforce ’em, then move ’em,” Barrons told the AP.
Russia is also trying to transport additional equipment from elsewhere and mobilize reservists in a desperate attempt to build up an adequate attack force, said Barrons, a co-chair of the advisory group Universal Defense & Security Solutions.
“They were beaten and they will only have a few weeks to recover,” he said.
Recently, Russian troops have been rolled into eastern Ukraine to take up attack positions. A convoy stretched about 13 kilometers (8 miles) on a highway east of Kharkiv, heading south toward Ukrainian lines near Izyum, a strategic road junction.
At the same time, Russian forces rushed to crush the remaining pockets of Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol after besieging the vital Sea of Azov port for almost 1 1/2 months.
The offensive is expected to begin once Mariupol is fully under Russian control and troops withdrawn from areas near Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy have completed their redeployment.
WILL A NEW COMMANDER MAKE THE DIFFERENCE?
General Alexander Dvornikov was appointed the new military commander for the campaign in Ukraine. The 60-year-old soldier is one of Russia’s most experienced officers, credited with leading Moscow’s forces to victory in Syria in a ruthless campaign to prop up President Bashar Assad’s regime in a civil war that has razed entire cities leveled and expelled millions.
In 2016, Putin awarded Dvornikov the Hero of Russia medal, one of the country’s highest honors, and appointed him chief of the Southern Military District, which commands units in south-western Russia.
Dvornikov’s appointment reflects the Kremlin’s awareness of quickly improving the poor coordination between different forces that hampered previous military efforts. However, skeptics point out that unlike the massive operation in Ukraine, the Syrian campaign involved a relatively small number of troops.
TRY NEW BATTLEFIELD TACTICS
Ukrainian and Western experts expect the Russians will try to encircle Ukrainian forces in Donbass with a pincer movement, advancing from Izyum in the north and Mariupol in the south.
Some predict that Russia could also try to use its forces north of Crimea in an attempt to capture the industrial hubs of Zaporizhia and Dnipro on the Dnieper River, effectively bisecting Ukraine.
Barrons said the Russians were concentrating on the east “rather than trying to do three or four big things at once and spread out the air force and logistics.”
“The main puzzle is, can the Russians muster enough strength… good enough to overwhelm a very good Ukrainian defense position by the sheer weight of brutality” by concentrating firepower and troops in a few key positions, he said.
WILL RUSSIA’S LOGISTICS PROBLEMS REMAIN?
Despite a new commander, the offensive will likely face the same logistical challenges that Russian troops faced early in the campaign.
During the botched attempt to storm Kyiv, Russian convoys wound their way along the highways leading to the capital, becoming easy prey for Ukrainian artillery, drones and scouts.
Supporting operations to the east could be equally difficult as Russian supply lines are likely to face hit-and-run raids, aided by the onset of spring as foliage provides natural cover for Ukrainian scouts and guerrillas.
Control of the skies was also a problem, as Ukrainian air defense units continued to shoot down Russian fighter jets, making it difficult for ground forces to advance. In recent days, Russia has launched attacks on Ukrainian long-range air defense systems, apparently in preparation for the offensive.
“If the Russians could learn the lessons of their failures so far and concentrate more forces and better connect their air force to ground forces and sort out the logistics, then eventually they could start overpowering the Ukrainian positions, although I still think it would be a fight.” with tremendous attrition,” Barrons told the AP.
BETTER TERRAIN FOR RUSSIA?
During eight years of fighting separatists in the east, Ukrainian forces have built multi-layered defenses that Russian forces have failed to breach despite sustained attacks since the invasion began on February 24.
“They have been fighting in these current positions in Donbass for about eight years, so they are very experienced and very well prepared,” Barrons said of the Ukrainian armed forces.
However, he noted that “this will be different because the Russian attack will potentially be much larger” and the flat terrain to the east could give the Russians an advantage.
“The kind of ambush tactics that the Ukrainians have been very successful with around Kyiv may not apply to the Donbass,” Barrons said. “And if the Russians were able to maneuver their armor in such a way that tanks, armored infantry and armored artillery could quickly get behind the Ukrainian position. It’s going to be a much tougher and bigger fight than we’ve seen before.”
Ukraine has asked the West for fighter jets, long-range air defense systems, heavy artillery and armor to counter a massive Russian firepower advantage.
“There’s a battle in time and space between the Russians and the Ukrainians so that the Russians can muster enough strength and the Ukrainians can get the weapons they need and rehearse for a bigger and slightly different fight, and I think that’s it finely balanced,” said Barrons.
FOR PUTIN, A RACE AGAINST TIME
After previous failures on the battlefield, Putin badly needs quick success in the East.
Battered by Western sanctions, Russia lacks the financial means for a protracted conflict. If the fighting drags on, it will inevitably worsen the economy and could lead to social tensions that will erode the Kremlin’s support base.
The military has already fielded its most capable combat units, and continued fighting will likely force it to call up more reservists and send in new conscripts — moves that could be hugely unpopular.
Putin may be hoping to quickly expand separatist-controlled territory in the east and then seek to negotiate concessions from Ukraine to complete the campaign and present it as a victory.
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Associated Press writers Yuras Karmanau in Lviv, Ukraine, and Danica Kirka in London contributed.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the war at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine