BRUSSELS — Finland on Wednesday will release an official assessment of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has transformed its security environment, beginning a process that is expected to culminate in a bid to join NATO.
The assessment, known as the White Paper, will not make a case for or against membership, according to the Finnish Foreign Ministry, but will serve as a starting point for a parliamentary debate as the country weighs a historic shift in its defense stance.
Finland and neighboring Sweden are officially non-aligned militarily, but Russia’s aggression has caused a dramatic shift in public sentiment – so much so that both countries are now expected to apply for membership in the coming months.
Their potential accession would reshape European security and outrage the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin used NATO expansion as a pretext for invading Ukraine. Now his brutal war could bring the military alliance ever closer to his door.
Wednesday’s white paper marks the start of the process for Finland, where support for joining NATO has risen to 68 percent, according to a recent poll.
“We will have very careful talks, but we will also not take any more time than we need in this process because of course the situation is very serious,” Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin told reporters last week, suggesting that a Decision could come at the end of June.
Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats, traditionally opposed to NATO membership, have also announced they will reconsider their position in the coming months – although the exact timing and extent of support remain unclear.
The question of expanding the alliance was discussed last week at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels. Both NATO and US officials stressed that it is up to countries to decide whether to join – while signaling they are welcome if they apply.
Sweden and Finland are already closely associated with the alliance. Both have worked with NATO on military interoperability, have trained with Alliance troops, and meet NATO standards when it comes to “political, democratic, civilian oversight of security institutions and armed forces,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said last week.
“There are no other countries closer to NATO,” Stoltenberg, a former Norwegian prime minister, told reporters in Brussels.
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Washington has also signaled support. In a briefing last week, Julianne Smith, the US ambassador to NATO, said the United States would “name” both countries if they wanted to join the alliance.
“We trained; we trained with them. They’re bringing very capable military men,” she said. “They are among our closest allies in Europe and so I can’t imagine a situation where there would be tremendous resistance to this idea.”
As Helsinki and Stockholm consider whether to make it official, a key question is whether and how they will be protected from possible Russian aggression in the period between expression of interest and actual membership, which can last many months.
Russia has warned of “serious military-political consequences” and “retaliation” should the two countries join forces. Though Finnish leaders have largely downplayed the threat, the country is bracing for a range of possible Russian responses, ranging from serious to mostly symbolic, said Henri Vanhanen, foreign policy expert and adviser to Finland’s National Coalition Party.
Vanhanen expects that NATO will find ways to “signal that Sweden and Finland are protected” in the meantime, such as through a political commitment to ensure safe accession or through some intensification of military cooperation.
“When they give us the signal that we’re welcome, it’s in their interest that that happens as smoothly as possible,” he said. “It would be a major blow to NATO if its open-door policy were undermined.”
Stoltenberg said last week he was “sure the coalition will find ways to address concerns about the timeline between a possible proposal and ratification,” but declined to give details of the discussions.
“I don’t think it’s going to help if I start speculating publicly about exactly how we’re going to do this,” he said. “But I’m confident that if they apply, we will sit down and find a way to address this issue.”
Putin’s war brings Finland and Sweden closer to joining NATO
Even without NATO protection, Finland and Sweden should theoretically have some degree of collective security. Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union states that if a member is the victim of an armed attack, other members must come to its aid.
Finland’s Marin and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson wrote a letter to European Council President Charles Michel last month drawing attention to the “increased role of EU solidarity and commitment to the Mutual Defense Clause” in Europe’s new security environment.
In a meeting with Sweden’s leader last month, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the country “can count on the EU” if Russia strikes.
Ryan reported from Washington.