As the last bottle thrown into a stormy sea, Moldova and Georgia demanded a swift accession to the European Union on Thursday. These two former Soviet republics fear that the conflict in Ukraine will spread to their territory and intend to benefit from the protection of the Union. Their candidacies come three days after a request from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to allow his country to join the EU “without delay”. But in fact, the demand for urgent accession to the European Union today is a bit like knocking on a door that will have fifty bolts. Explanations.
What are the different steps for joining the EU?
Before even submitting an application, it is quite standard for a country to conclude a preliminary association agreement with Brussels with the EU. “This makes it possible to create a free trade area between the EU and the country, which will begin to align its standards with those of Europe,” explains Olivier Costa, research director at CNRS Ceviprof and a specialist in the European Union. . The country can then apply to the European Council, which sends it to the European Commission to consider and determine whether it can be a candidate. Yes, not because you are applying to be a candidate (similar to presidential sponsorships). The application shall be recognized only after a unanimous vote of the Commission, but when abstentions are not blocked.
After this validation the application becomes official. Then begins the sequence of negotiations. During this period, the candidate country must comply with European standards. If the Commission unanimously considers that all the boxes are ticked, accession can enter the final phase of validation, namely: unanimous vote by the European Council (always abstaining), majority vote in the European Parliament and finally ratification by all Member States of the Accession Treaty. “It only takes one country at a time to veto and it will block,” Olivier Costa explained.
What are the conditions for joining the European Union?
A country hoping to join the European Union must meet the criteria during the validation phase of its application and meet different requirements during the negotiation phase. As far as the validation of the candidacy is concerned, “we must first and foremost be part of the European continent,” Olivier Costa recalled, following the example of Morocco’s rejected candidacy. For the rest, the Council of the European Union draws up a list of these known criteria on its website. The country must be a democracy with stable institutions guaranteeing “the rule of law, human rights, respect for and protection of minorities”. Its market economy must be “viable” and able to face competition or markets outside the EU. Finally, the country must be able to meet the goals of political, economic and monetary union imposed by the Union.
During the negotiation phase, the country must integrate all European law into its national law, “and here we are talking about tens of thousands of standards,” Olivier Costa said. He also has to adapt his administration, sometimes making economic reforms or at the level of justice. “The aim is to be able to manage all European standards and policies on day 1 of its accession to the Union,” the expert continued. Throughout this period, the Commission shall ensure that the pre-validated criteria for formalizing the application are always met.
How long does all this take?
It all depends on who you are. “For Austria, Finland and Sweden, the recognition of the candidacy was almost immediate and the negotiations for joining the Union were very short,” says Olivier Costa. On the other hand, for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the negotiation phase lasted ten years. The more economic slowdown, the more complicated it is. And we are not talking about Turkey, which applied in 1987, recognized in 1999 and for which negotiations have been frozen since 2018.
That is why the Ukrainian president has called for a “new special procedure”, adding: “I am sure it is possible.” “There is no accelerated procedure,” reassures Olivier Costa. Negotiation time is also needed because it allows candidate countries to prepare properly. “They have access to an aid fund, European experts can be sent and cooperation is being established,” the CNRS researcher said.
Possible exception for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia?
It is difficult to predict the exact future from a geopolitical point of view, especially since “European law is quite flexible and adapts to the current political problems,” said Olivier Costa. “In fact, if Charles Michel (President of the European Council), Ursula von der Leyen (President of the European Commission) and Emmanuel Macron (rotating President of the Council of the European Union) think we need to send a strong message to Vladimir Putin by validating Ukraine’s candidacy, this is possible perhaps for at least two months. However, this would be conditional for the expert, as Ukraine needs to make some efforts with regard to democracy, minority rights or freedom of the press.
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With regard to membership, Olivier Costa, on the other hand, is much less optimistic and quite convinced that Member States will not want “discounted entry”. “Some of the criteria for membership also apply to the EU: is it able to absorb new integration, especially at the economic level. If the member states are unanimous in solidarity with Ukraine and understand the fears of Moldova and Georgia, some are certainly not ready to unlock the door at the risk of seeing further difficulties and tensions in the house.