Belarus is preparing for war. For months the Russian headquarters and tank workshop, the country that Alexander Lukashenko rules with an iron fist, woke up on Friday to the news that he was embroiled in an anti-terrorist operation against an undefined enemy. Some local media reports that a discreet mobilization is taking place to reinforce their troops. The Kremlin already took this step on September 21 and mobilized around 300,000 reservists. Barely three weeks later, the first civilians called to arms against Ukraine died.
Despite the seriousness of the announcement, Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei, through an interview with the Russian newspaper Izvestia, informed his citizens about the activation of the anti-terrorist operation. According to Minsk, “some neighboring states are planning provocations related to the seizure of some extensions of Belarusian territory,” Makei said, without specifying which countries are in the plural or what it consists of or how long his operation will last.
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Hours later, Lukashenko confirmed to the Rossiya 1 TV channel that this measure involves the deployment of joint forces with Russia on its territory. “The base of these allied forces is provided by Belarus and completed by the Russian Federation,” he added.
The President called a meeting with his collaborators on October 10, during which he assured “through unofficial channels” that Ukraine allegedly wants to attack Belarus, although it is fully focused on retaking its territory. “Tell the President of Ukraine and other maniacs that if they touch a single meter of our territory with their dirty hands, the Crimean Bridge will look like flowers,” said the Belarusian President, who announced this week that his government and the Kremlin would do so together within their borders.
For its part, the Nasha Niva newspaper reported on a covert mobilization in rural areas under the guise of so-called “recruitment of partisans”, mere training. According to their sources, the government’s pretext is to test the combat capability of existing units and encourages citizens who are required to do military service to do so.
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mobilization
The key will be the volume of this alleged mobilization, which is still unknown. According to an official in the Belarusian Armed Forces, a recruitment of up to 2,000 people would be aimed at reinforcing the personnel of individual units for limited missions such as artillery. Another source added that the red line would be 5,000 members, as that would mean the government intends to create a shock force (several if there are more than 10,000 recruits).
Belarusian authorities have confirmed that the recruitment centers on behalf of Lukashenko, together with local organizations and companies, will review the military situation of their citizens between October 12 and November 12, an initiative that Nasha Niva considered exceptional. However, the Belarusian uniformed officers deny that there will be a mobilization. “There’s nothing to worry about. It’s just a scheduled job. As they say, gunpowder needs to be kept dry; and if for a soldier gunpowder is cartridges and shells; for recruiting center staff, it’s the documents” , said the military commissar of the Brest region, Oleg Konovalov, at a press conference broadcast by local media.
The Belarusian check-up is reminiscent of that which began in Russia in the summer, months before the mobilization ordered by Vladimir Putin on September 21, in which he assured that only reservists with previous military experience would be called up, which has not happened in of mass recruitment. In addition, the Ministry of Defense promised that day that the new recruits would not be sent to the front.
Only three weeks ago, the Russian authorities recognized the victims of mobilized people for the first time. “Unfortunately, the Military Registration and Recruitment Service has confirmed the deaths of five residents of the Southern Urals who were called by the Korkino Military Commissariat. We will provide all necessary assistance to the families and friends of our fallen soldiers,” announced the Chelyabinsk governorate on social media.
These are the first known official cases, although several local media these days have uncovered the deaths of more people who have not had time for training. At the beginning of this week, the deaths of three other residents of Sverdlovsk became known.
This Friday, at the meeting of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) leaders in Astana, Kazakhstan, Lukashenko reiterated that the former USSR was experiencing an open confrontation with the West. “What we have been talking about for years has come true. A real hybrid war has been unleashed against us, and Ukraine is just a pretext,” he stressed to his colleagues during the summit.
Belarus played a key role in the Kremlin’s offensive against Ukraine. Its border is the shortest road to Kyiv and passes through the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the threat of which serves as leverage for any negotiations. Under the pretext of holding joint exercises in February, Russian forces stationed thousands of soldiers and air squadrons there for several months. Despite promises that they would return to their bases, Minsk confirmed on February 20 that they would remain there indefinitely. Four days later they attacked.
Likewise, Belarus ceded its airspace to Russia to launch missiles at Ukraine. According to Nasha Niva, after a lull in September, Kremlin rockets again crossed the Belarusian sky on October 6.
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