WASHINGTON. In imposing historic sanctions on Russia, the Biden administration and European governments have set new goals: to destroy the Russian economy as punishment for the world and to exert internal pressure on President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. say current and former US officials.
The harsh sanctions that have plummeted the ruble, shut down the Russian stock market and sparked a run on banks contradict previous statements by US officials that they would refrain from hurting ordinary Russians. “We are targeting them carefully so that there is not even the appearance of targeting the average Russian citizen,” Duleep Singh, deputy national security adviser for international economics, said at a White House briefing last month.
The escalation of sanctions this week happened much faster than many officials expected, US officials said, largely because European leaders adopted the most aggressive measures proposed by Washington.
With the collapse of the Russian economy, major companies, including Apple, Boeing and Shell, are suspending or terminating their activities in the country. The Biden administration said Thursday it would not offer sanctions relief amid Mr. Putin’s increasingly vicious offensive.
Some US and European officials believe Mr. Putin can stop the war if enough Russians protest in the streets and enough tycoons rise up against him. Other US officials emphasize the goals of punishment and future deterrence, saying that the corpse of the Russian economy will serve as a visible consequence of Mr. Putin’s actions and a warning to other aggressors.
But the $1.5 trillion Russian economy ranks 11th in the world; no country has tried to bring an economy of this size to the brink of collapse with unknown consequences for the world. And US and European actions could set the stage for a new kind of great power conflict in the future.
The moves have also raised questions in Washington and European capitals about whether the cascading events in Russia could lead to “regime change” or government collapse, which President Biden and European leaders are careful not to mention.
“This is not a war for the Russian people,” Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken said at a press conference on Wednesday. But, he added, “the Russian people will suffer the consequences of the choice of their leaders.”
“The economic costs that we are forced to impose on Russia are not directed against you,” he said. “They are aimed at making your government stop its actions, stop its aggression.”
The harshest sanctions to date are those that prevent Russia’s Central Bank from drawing on most of its $643 billion in foreign exchange reserves, causing the ruble’s value to plummet. Panic gripped the whole of Russia. Citizens are trying to withdraw money from banks, preferably in dollars, and some are fleeing the country.
This week, the United States and Europe also announced new sanctions against oligarchs with close ties to Mr. Putin. Officials are moving to seize their homes, yachts and private jets around the world. French officials on Thursday confiscated the giant yacht of Igor Sechin, chief executive of Rosneft, Russia’s state oil giant.
“The sanctions have been completely unprecedented,” said Maria Snegovaya, a visiting fellow at George Washington University who has studied US sanctions on Russia. “Everyone in Russia is terrified. They’re trying to figure out the best way to save their money.”
French finance minister Bruno Le Maire used one of the harshest terms to frame the mission, saying on a radio program Tuesday that Western countries are “waging an all-out economic and financial war against Russia” to “cause collapse.” Russian economy”. He later said he regretted his words.
Evidence of shock and anger among Russians – mostly anecdotal in a country with limited speech and little opinion polling – has given rise to the specter of massive political dissent that, if strong enough, could threaten Mr. Putin’s power.
On Friday, Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, told Fox News, “The best way to end this is to invite Eliot Ness or Wyatt Earp to Russia, the Russian spring, so to speak, when people will rise up and take him.” down.”
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March 4, 2022 1:31 pm ET
Mr Graham added: “So I hope someone in Russia realizes that he is destroying Russia and you need to take this guy down by any means possible,” he repeated. his twitter post call for the assassination of Mr. Putin.
A spokesman for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday that the sanctions were “designed to topple the Putin regime.” Mr. Johnson’s administration quickly corrected the statement, saying that it did not reflect the views of his government and that the purpose of these measures was to stop Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
Michael A. McFaul, the former US ambassador to Moscow, called talk of overthrowing Mr. Putin useless, stressing that sanctions must be adapted and described as a means of stopping the invasion. “The goal should be to end the war,” he said.
But while the Biden administration has said it remains open to diplomatic relations with Russia, it has not offered to lift any sanctions in exchange for a de-escalation.
“Right now, they are marching towards Kyiv with a convoy and continue to take allegedly barbaric actions against the people of Ukraine,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Thursday. “So no, now is not the time we are proposing options for easing sanctions.”
But on Friday, in an interview with the Russian TASS news agency, Victoria J. Nuland, the US undersecretary of state for political affairs, offered terms for a possible sanctions relief, albeit a maximum one. She said Mr Putin must end the war, help “rebuild” Ukraine and recognize its sovereignty, borders and right to exist. These are terms that the Russian leader is unlikely to consider.
All the while, Biden officials have tried to reassure Russians that they are not enjoying their suffering. The United States and Europe have tried to spare Russians some of the consequences, including allowing the sale of consumer technology to Russia despite new export restrictions.
They also refrain from imposing energy sanctions because of Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and the risk of higher oil prices.
However, Mr. Putin and his aides are doing their best to find some political advantage in the sanctions, arguing that the West’s real goal has always been to weaken Russia. Launching his invasion last week, Putin said the United States would impose sanctions on his country “no matter what.”
Russian-Ukrainian war: what you need to know
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Russian conquests in the south. After taking control of Kherson and cutting off the city of Mariupol, Russian troops pushed deep into southern Ukraine, landing at the port of Nikolaev, just 60 miles from Odessa, a vital shipping center and the largest city in the south.
In an interview with Al Jazeera on Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the sanctions were meant to “target ordinary people” and that the West had stopped cultural exchange programs and even Russian sports teams.
Whatever their specific purpose, sanctions are not good at persuading governments to change their behavior. The Trump administration’s sanctions on Iran, possibly the toughest imposed on any country, have failed to force Tehran to stop supporting militias in the Middle East or its uranium enrichment efforts after President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal. North Korea is pushing ahead with a nuclear weapons program despite heavy sanctions imposed by four US presidents.
The same is largely true of US sanctions on Syria, Cuba and Venezuela.
At times, the US government has achieved modest goals through sanctions. Some analysts and US officials claim that Iran began negotiations on a nuclear deal after the Obama administration imposed sanctions. Trump administration officials said the sanctions helped force North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to meet with Trump (along with tweets and letters between the leaders).
And some former Obama officials, including those now in the Biden administration, argue that sanctions against Russia in 2014 helped discourage Putin from further infiltration into Ukraine after he annexed Crimea and launched a separatist war in the country’s east.
This winter, the Biden administration used the threat of sanctions to try to keep Putin from invading Ukraine. He warned that the measures would be tough, but did not go into details. US officials have not publicly mentioned the possibility of punishing the Russian central bank — the toughest sanction so far — because they were unsure whether European countries would participate in the program, the former US official said.
After the United States, Britain and the European Union announced sanctions against the central bank, the ruble fell sharply on Monday. The bank no longer has access to foreign exchange reserves held outside of Russia, so it cannot use these assets to buy rubles and maintain their value. The Ministry of Finance has also imposed sanctions on some Russian state-owned companies that have foreign currency assets that the central bank can use.
As its economy fluctuated, Russia suspended trading on its stock market. In one of the Russian news programs, investment analyst Alexander Butmanov raised a toast and said: “Dear stock market, you were close to us, you were interesting. Rest in peace, dear friend.”
Some Russians have been traveling to the borders this week with bags of cash.
But if the goal of the sanctions is to force Mr. Putin to stop the war, then the end point seems far away.
“The Russian political system does not depend on the approval of the people. This is important, but not the most important thing,” said Ms. Snegovaya. “It may depend on the scale of the crisis – if we see a lot of protests on the streets, it could make the Kremlin think twice.”