On February 24, at dawn, Russian troops entered Ukrainian territory. 50 days later they are still there and the fighting is centered on Mariupol. The situation seems as unsolvable militarily as it is diplomatically.
It was February 24th. After weeks of tension – and eight years of clashes between Kyiv and separatist republics in the east of the country – Vladimir Putin sent his troops to attack Ukraine. This Thursday marks the fiftieth day of Russian aggression.
The blitz campaign devised by the Kremlin has now fizzled out, and by the end of these six weeks of fighting the front seems to have stabilised. Or stuck. Because while the main fighting is currently taking place in south-eastern Ukraine around the port of Mariupol and a likely large-scale Russian offensive in neighboring Donbass is imminent, the situation is also deadlocked at geopolitical and diplomatic levels. BFMTV.com takes stock of the conflict this Thursday.
• A humanitarian truce that seems impossible
In 50 days of war, many have tried to derail the two warring nations. International negotiations are indeed ongoing. World leaders continue to urge Moscow to open humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians. But neither Emmanuel Macron and his calls to the Kremlin, nor Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer and his visit to Vladimir Putin on Monday within its walls have succeeded. And on Wednesday it was the United Nations’ turn to despair.
During a press conference, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres abandoned his ambition to achieve a “humanitarian truce” on the front lines.
“We requested that for humanitarian reasons, but it doesn’t seem possible,” he told reporters.
His deputy, Martin Griffiths, may have been dispatched to Moscow to gather guarantees for the delivery of aid to civilians in conflict-affected regions, even in the face of possible evacuations, the head of the international organization admitted that those demands go unheeded had stayed.
• Russia threatens Ukrainian command centers
Russia, therefore, continues to puff its chest on the planetary stage. Yet these past fifty days have not openly acknowledged its dominance of the military balance of power. And the war he unleashed has already changed its face several times under the influence of circumstances, the Ukrainian resistance and its inability to win the decision. Gone is the Blitzkrieg, place for trench warfare and siege warfare; The offensive in the north-east was over, the Kremlin conceded that its soldiers had to withdraw to the south-east.
However, once Moscow has abandoned its primary and original target, namely the city of Kyiv, the regime threatens to return there. Indeed, on Wednesday, the spokesman for the local Defense Ministry stormed in, citing Ukrainian shootings and acts of sabotage on Russian soil:
“If such events continue, the Russian military will launch attacks on decision-making centers, including in Kyiv, from which the Russian military has so far refrained.”
The Kremlin may sink into its attempts at intimidation, it has already lost a lot on the ground. According to the Dutch website Oryx – which follows the evolution of the conflict step by step by listing the material damage suffered by the two enemies thanks to the study of photos and videos – the Russians have already left 2884 vehicles in battle, of which 1538 were simply destroyed in the heat of battle. On the other hand, the Ukrainians suffered the loss of 774 vehicles, of which 353 were also destroyed.
• The tragic fate of Mariupol
However, it would be wrong to bury the Russian army’s damage capability and underestimate the seriousness of the military situation in Ukraine. So now a single question hovers over Mariupol – situated on the shore of the Sea of Azov – which asserts itself as a symbol of this war: this city, whose capture would allow the Russians to unite their zone of influence in south-eastern Ukraine, has it already fallen or is it about to before the fall?
Because of the mere admission of the Ukrainian army – according to a press release published on Facebook on Monday – the 36th was leveled, besieged as it was from the first days of the invasion. In fact, the Ukrainian soldiers admitted that they were on the verge of giving up due to a lack of ammunition.
However, the clashes in the industrial zone of the agglomeration continue. For their part, the separatists, allied with the Russians, claim total control of the port.
A claim that is difficult to verify, as does this statement, this time from Moscow, according to which more than a thousand Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to the invader. Kyiv denies the reality of this alleged capitulation, but local authorities have confirmed another, even more tragic statistic, lamenting the deaths of at least 20,000 people in Mariupol.
• Ukraine turns into a huge crime scene
Mariupol, Boucha, Borodyanka, Kramatorsk. Mass graves follow one another as the war takes its ruthless course. The prosecutor at the International Criminal Court, the Briton Karim Khan, even described Ukraine as a huge “crime scene”.
Ukraine is a crime scene. We are here because we have good reason to believe that crimes falling within the jurisdiction of the Court are being committed, he said during his visit to Boutcha.
The International Criminal Court based in The Hague, Netherlands, has already initiated investigations. International experts – including French seconded by the Ministry of Justice – are touring the field to shed light on Russian war crimes.
• The international community is now divided
So when the conflict takes place before the eyes of the world, it is clear that international unity has lived and that attitudes are beginning to diverge by region of the world. During a trip to Ukraine this weekend, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson pledged to supply armored vehicles to Ukraine, contrary to the wish of European Union members to limit themselves to sending only defense material. And on Wednesday, US President Joe Biden followed suit, formulating a new $800 million in aid to Ukraine, including heavy equipment.
The contradictions between the different actors are also of a semantic nature. Thus, North American leaders—first Joe Biden, then Canadian Justin Trudeau—no longer hesitate to mention an ongoing genocide in Ukraine. A charge that the Russians consider “unacceptable.” And much of the international community prefers to remain cautious on the issue. Antonio Guterres therefore evacuated during his press conference:
Genocide is strictly defined in international law.
Emmanuel Macron also refused to use this sulphurous term. On Wednesday, on the set of 4 Vérités de France 2, he explained his position: “It’s amazing what’s happening, it’s incredibly brutal (…) but at the same time I’m looking at the facts and I want to try It’s best, this one.” To continue ending the war and restoring peace, so I’m not sure if the escalation of the words serves the cause”. His German partner, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, also shares his view.
A caution that is going badly in Ukraine. After the French President’s statement, his counterpart in Kyiv, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, condemned the “very hurtful” comments.
At the end of these fifty days of war, therefore, the solution to the conflict is still not within reach and the fault lines appear ever more yawning.
Robin Verner Journalist BFMTV