Our staff’s top 5 picks for Thursday, including Phillies vs. Marlins, Blue Jays vs. Yankees & More (April 14)

We’re a week into the 2022 MLB season and have reached our first “short vacation day” where a variety of series either begin or end.

There are 11 games total on the schedule, including a series opener tilt between the Cardinals and the Brewers and a series end game between the Blue Jays and the Yankees.

Our analysts are on both games, including a trio of picks for the former as well as a page for Phillies Marlins.

Here are our top five bets from Thursday’s Major League Baseball standings.

MLB Odds & Tips

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Tanner McGrath: We get a red hot Redbirds lineup with their ace on the hill at over +130 odds.

What’s not to like?

The general public has little to do with the Cardinals, and I’ve even bet on their overall wins this season. But I am willing to support them at this point.

The Cardinals have posted a whopping 152 wRC+ per week throughout the season, hitting .271 with .874 OPS despite a below-average BABIP of .271. Meanwhile, Wainwright pushed on his first start, fielding six scoreless while beating six Pirates and not allowing walks.

All together, and the Cardinals are 3-1.

Meanwhile, the Brewers’ Bats haven’t found out. After averaging just 2.8 runs per game in their first five, the Brewers managed just three runs against the lowly Orioles, and the normally dominant rear of the bullpen blew a two-run lead against – again – the lowly Orioles.

Brandon Woodruff is a better starting pitcher than Wainwright. And the Brewers have a better pen than St. Louis.

But the Cardinals’ lineup has a massive advantage. And the way these two teams are trending, I can’t help but back the Cardinals over +130 here at all costs.

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Michael Arinze: The Milwaukee Brewers came back to .500 after winning the last two games of their series against the Orioles. Still, I wouldn’t get too excited considering Baltimore is one of three teams with just one win this season.

For the past four years, the Brewers’ starting rotation has carried the team — and propelled them to a playoff appearance each of those seasons. However, the 2018 season was the only time Milwaukee’s offense recorded an average to above average wRC+.

Milwaukee’s at-bats are again struggling to start the year, sitting 20th with a wRC+ of 87. It’s worth noting that Milwaukee doesn’t get production from their pitching team either, as they have a 4.24 ERA is in 21st place. Usually, when it’s this early in the season, the pitchers tend to have the upper hand against the hitters. However, with spring training shortened this year, I think the pitchers are at a disadvantage.

On Thursday, Milwaukee will send Brandon Woodruff up the mound after a tough first start, where he allowed seven runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Cubs. Normally I would try to back up Woodruff to fight back. However, he also struggled during spring practice, allowing 15 runs in 11 2/3 innings.

Woodruff faces a Cardinals team that has won the last three encounters with him on the mound. Milwaukee is also 0-6 in its last six starts. Although he finished 2021 with a 2.56 ERA, his 3.31 SIERA could foreshadow the regression we could expect this season.

Given what we know about this abbreviated spring training for pitchers, I’m more inclined to favor teams with better attacking skills. The Cardinals are in second place with a wRC+ score of 153, but are as high as an underdog of +125.

Since my model has this game closer to even money, I think the Cardinals are worth a look and I would downplay them to +115.

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Jules Posner: Brandon Woodruff didn’t have the best debut of the season, but in the Brewers’ home opener he has the ball again and should hit back.

Woodruff absolutely dominated last season at home with a 2.31 ERA with a 2.74 FIP in 2021. This has to do with his career splits.

The Brewers offense was tasked with opening the season with a game at a hostile Wrigley Field against a team with a chip on their shoulder and a newly attacking Camden Yards. Not the best situations to get their offensive going.

However, the return to American Family Field will definitely boost morale and hopefully offensive performance.

I’m always on board the Adam Wainwright train when it pulls up home, but I’ll bet on him in a jiffy if he steps foot anywhere else. I’m willing to do that again in this matchup.

Wainwright did well on the road last season, but given the unbalanced schedule, it’s not very impressive at the end of the day to pick up wins on the road against the Cubs and Pirates.

The Cards currently have the best offense in MLB in terms of Team wRC+, but they haven’t been challenged the way they are challenged by Brandon Woodruff.

The Brewers ML is looking good today.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins

DJ James: Sandy Alcantara loves using his slider. He will throw it about 35% of the time. This works well for him because in the Phillies only Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber have posted a .330 xwOBA or better against righties.

The Marlins, on the other hand, can hit right cutters and sinkers. Gibson uses these two pitches together more than 50% of the time. Every hitter on the team except Jon Berti, Miguel Rojas, and Payton Henry has an xwOBA of .330+ or ​​better at those pitches.

This is a tough duel for Kyle Gibson, even if he’s a accomplished veteran and will be familiar with most of the Miami lineup.

The Philly Bullpen has shown some tremendous improvement here in the early days, but that shouldn’t be much of an advantage considering these are two of the top pitchers on each respective roster.

Given the edge on the offensive side paired with Alcantara on the bump, the Marlins are the right side. Bring them to -130.

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees

Kenny Ducey: Kevin Gausman might have been sixth in the Cy Young voting last year, but that wasn’t because of the way he ended the season. The right-hander posted a 4.42 ERA in 15 starts in the second half of 2021, allowing for a .276 batting average and a home run average every 26 at-bats.

Perhaps a step backwards came given his 3.52 xERA for the season, although that’s not necessarily a bad number, despite being much higher than the ERA he ended the year with.

All of that is to say that Gausman’s season-opening start, in which he allowed Rangers three eight-goal runs, is a little more concerning given what we saw from the right late in the season last year. It’s also worth noting that the offenses he’ll face in the American League are likely to be more dangerous.

We have that here with the Yankees. While it’s still very early days, I have to note that New York has recorded a 55.2% hard hit rate and a 15.2% barrel rate in six games, which seems to indicate that they’re unlucky have to muster only 21 runs in that time span. Both brands lead the big leagues and they’re a nightmare to behold for Gausman, who has given up hit after hit since last year’s All-Star hiatus.

I don’t want to guess whether Luis Severino is back or not, or let that Blue Jays offense fade. I’m aiming for the whole team.

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