The probability that La Niña will continue to be present in the next months of December 2022 and January and February 2023 has increased by 75%, but after the end of the weather phenomenon and a period of neutrality, the chances of a return of the El Nino are increasing .
The forecast came from Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). According to meteorologist Cindy Fernández of the Argentine National Meteorological Service (SMN), “The following is observed in the forecasts when summer comes [La Niña] tends to weaken so that other factors come into play, contributing to or inhibiting its effects”.
Another agency already making longterm forecasts for El Niño is the Climate Impact Company, which predicts this weather phenomenon to occur in late 2023. “Early next year, the very hot SSTA pattern, reinforced by the Indian Ocean negative dipole (IOD) at the eastern end of the equatorial Indian Ocean, will disappear,” the meteorologists point out.
According to them, “super hot waters north and northwest of Australia are currently promoting convection, which includes updrafts. This rising air is replaced by enhanced trade winds from the east. This exchange raises cold water in the central/east equatorial Pacific to support La Niña. However, this ENSO accelerator weakens and disappears in the months of February and March of the next year. Consequently, La Niña must also end.”
“What’s next? A 2in3 risk for El Niño development is likely after mid2023. Conclusion: Once the superhot SSTA in the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean/western Pacific recedes, the mechanism driving La Nina should weaken “This change is triggered by the dissolution of the IOD pattern in January. ENSO has a natural character to oscillate from one phase to the opposite phase and this character should be present until the end of 2023,” the meteorologists conclude.