Le Pen’s “left” economic plan and Macron rejection are attracting some Mélenchon voters
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The voters of JeanLuc Mélénchon of the radical left will have the decisive weight in the second round of the French presidential election on the 24th, which, like 2017, will again be contested between President Emmanuel Macron, of the centre, and Marine Le Pen, of the right , radical.
Mélenchon from France Insubmissa took third place with 22% of the vote. Paradoxically, some of his constituents now expect to vote for Le Pen, who sits at the other end of the political body.
In his speech shortly after the publication of the estimates of the results of the first round, Mélenchon forcefully repeated to his constituents four times that “Le Pen should not be given a vote”, without, however, making an appeal in favor of Macron.
Despite the recommendation of the leader of the radical left in France, a significant number of his voters, according to various polls published after last Sunday’s results, expect between 18 and 30 percent to vote for Le Pen in the second round.
Macron is predicted to have an advantage over the Rassemblement National candidate (National Group, former National Front) in transferring votes from Mélenchon in every poll. But this electorate, which voted for indomitable France, indicates that they will mainly opt for an abstention, a blank vote or no vote (between 35% and 45%).
“There is a minority, but a significant part, of the Mélenchon electorate that is willing to vote for Le Pen. There is an advantage for Macron that is not that big. The dispute is real and will continue until the last moment,” says politician analyst Gaspard Estrada from Sciences Po University.
Two factors explain why a farleft voter plans to vote for Le Pen. One of them is the similarity of his economic program to that of Mélenchon. The other radical right candidate, Éric Zemmour, who received 7% of the vote, went so far as to say that Le Pen “is on the left”.
Mélenchon said his voters should not vote for Le Pen
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During his campaign, Le Pen put aside the strong themes of his party (immigration, Islam and security), which remains radical, and focused his speeches on the issue of improving the purchasing power of the population in an economic context of high inflation. For example, his program includes cutting the ICMSlike tax on fuel, electricity and gas from 20% to 5.5% and adjusting pensions for inflation.
She also promises a protective state and, like Mélenchon, the holding of “popular initiatives,” one of the demands of the Yellow Vests movement, which held protests that were sometimes violent in France for months, in 2018 and 2019. to demand an improvement in the standard of living. Le Pen also emphasizes “social injustices” in this runoff.
The other factor contributing to a vote for Le Pen in the second round is the rejection of President Macron by part of Mélenchon’s electorate.
Le Pen and Mélenchon primarily attract the working class, with incomes around the minimum wage. Macron, dubbed by some the “president of the rich,” has been criticized for ignoring the least fortunate sections of the population. For her part, Marine Le Pen, who reversed her party’s economic discourse, calls herself an “opponent of the power of money.”
After mobilizing in the 2017 election to prevent Le Pen from coming to power, part of Mélenchon’s constituency say they are disappointed in the current president, saying they are now “tired like a beaver of dams.” building against the radical right,” an expression that has become common among some politicians and voters in indomitable France.
“It’s a kind of anger or desperation against the system. It’s an electorate with more precarious economic conditions, bluecollar and lowskilled workers who don’t feel represented in Macron’s speech,” Estrada says of one of the reasons why someone who votes for the radical left votes for Le Pen in the second ballot.
Marine Le Pen hopes to turn the second round into a kind of referendum against President Macron.
“I would like to say to JeanLuc Mélenchon’s voters that I am closely linked to our social protection system. I have the project with the most protection. Macron represents toughness when it comes to the humblest,” Le Pen said in an interview with TF1 this week. Week.
Le Pen wants the second round to be a referendum on Emmanuel Macron’s government
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The candidate says she is linked to the generous French social protection system, but defends in her program the “national priority” which is to allow people of French nationality to access social housing and employment, and also to reserve social assistance for French people (in the case of Foreigners must prove five years of work in order to receive benefits). Since such a distinction according to nationality is not legally possible, Le Pen is striving for a constitutional amendment.
President Macron also wants to appeal to the leftwing electorate, who preferred the useful vote in Mélenchon because he had a better chance of qualifying. The French leader has already admitted he is ready to amend his pension reform law, which would raise the minimum pension age to 65 from the current 62.
Macron also recently announced that he would index pensions to inflation as part of Le Pen’s program. In March, prices rose 4.5% yearonyear. Macron stated that this will happen as early as July.
“I’m willing to invent something new to bring different beliefs and sensibilities together,” Macron said shortly after the results of the first round were announced.
“The equation is complicated for Macron. He has already served one term, he had the opportunity to disappoint part of the electorate and Marine Le Pen is in a better position than five years ago,” says political scientist Bruno Cautrès of the Center for French Political Life at the Po University of Sciences.
Macron remains the favorite in the opinion polls, but this time the race is much tougher than in 2017 when the current president won by 32 percentage points.
In polls released this Tuesday and Wednesday, Macron is between 52.5% and 55% and Marine Le Pen is between 45% and 47.5%. For some of them, the difference in points remains within the margin of error. On Sunday, shortly after the results were announced, a poll by the Ifop Institute showed 51 percent for Macron and 49 percent for Le Pen.