A piece of torn and melted sea ice photographed by a NASA aircraft during an Arctic sea ice research mission, July 19, 2022 (AFP / Kerem Yücel)
The paradoxical and climate-positive effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is that global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions are expected to peak as early as 2025, after spurring increased investment in sustainable energy prompted by the “profound rebalancing” of world energy markets, according to the report International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated on Thursday.
Eight days ahead of the COP27 world climate conference in Egypt, the agency nevertheless warns of the “ruptures” between rich and poor countries in investing in low-carbon energy in its 2022 annual report published on Thursday, calling for a “major international climate effort”, this “worrying gap” to “reduce”.
“The global energy crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing profound and long-term changes that have the potential to accelerate the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system,” the IEA said in the presentation document for its report.
The inequalities of global warming ( AFP / )
“Energy markets and public policies have changed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, not just for now but for decades to come,” said the agency’s chief executive Fatih Birol, quoted in the report.
While some countries are currently trying to increase or diversify their supply of oil or gas — fossil fuels with high carbon emissions — many are looking at accelerating their structural shifts towards clean energy, says the IEA, an offshoot of the OECD that includes many should support countries.
– “Fracture” –
Europe’s “break” with Russian gas happened at a rate “few would have thought possible,” the IEA adds.
And Russia “fails” to redirect its gas flows, which previously went to Europe, to other countries.
CO2 emissions: power generation far away from the account ( AFP / )
In none of the three scenarios examined by the agency will Russia’s gas and oil export levels return to 2021 levels, and in one of them its share of the global oil and gas market will be halved by 2030.
For the first time, the three scenarios examined each year by the agency identify a peak or plateau in the consumption of each of the fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil) that are choking and warming the planet.
In the central scenario, which is based on the already announced commitments of governments in terms of climate investments (“Inflation Reduction Act” in the USA, “Fit for 55” and “RePowerEu” in Europe, “Green Transformation” in Japan). .), global energy-related CO2 emissions would thus peak in 2025 at 37 billion tons and then drop to 32 billion tons in 2050.
– 2.5 degrees –
But despite these efforts, average global temperatures would rise by about 2.5 degrees by 2100, which is “far from enough to avoid serious climate impacts.”
Key points of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on the impact of global warming on humans ( AFP / )
The agency reiterates the need for massive investment in clean energy, whether green or simply low-carbon like nuclear, and an acceleration in specific areas like electric batteries (for cars), photovoltaics and the electrolysers designed to produce hydrogen, particularly to decarbonize industry.
In his central scenario, these investments must exceed $2 trillion by 2030, and they would need to increase to $4 trillion to meet the conditions of the net-zero emissions scenario in 2050.
“A major international effort is required to close the worrying gap that is widening between advanced economies and those of emerging or developing countries in clean energy investment,” the IEA adds.
Former French climate ambassador Laurence Tubiana responded to AFP, saying the report clearly shows that “clean energy investments need to triple by 2030 and that gas is a dead end.”
“With an abundance of wind, solar and other renewable energies, Africa can lead the world on the path of transition and pave the way to energy sovereignty,” said Mohammed Adow, founder and director of climate think tank Power Shift Africa.