Forty days of protest, often violently put down. The revolt in Iran has not abated since the death of Mahsa Amini, who died on September 16 of a strand of hair from her veil, three days after she was arrested in Tehran by vice squads. In response, the regime is multiplying arrests (1,000 since the beginning of the demonstrations, according to an official report) and disruptions to the internet.
This oppression is bloody. Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights estimated on Tuesday October 25 that 141 people, including children, have died since the protest erupted.
>> IN PICTURES. A month of protests in Iran and around the world following the death of Mahsa Amini.
Despite such violence, hundreds of people gathered in Saghez, in Iran’s Kurdistan province, where Mahsa Amini was from, on Wednesday for a memorial ceremony marking the end of the traditional 40-day mourning and reflecting the duration of the movement. The slogan has remained the same since the first demonstrations: “Woman, life, freedom”. According to Hengaw, a Norway-based Iranian Kurdish rights group, security forces opened fire on the crowd.
Will the destabilized mullah regime step up oppression? How can the protest movement continue? Franceinfo interviewed Dorna Javan, PhD student in political science at Science Po Lyon and specialist in mobilizations in Iran.
Franceinfo: Despite the severe repression that has taken place since the protests began, the movement is not weakening. How do you analyze it?
Dorna Javan: It is obviously impossible to predict the future, but it is very likely that the movement will continue. The regime is facing a new generation of activists, unlike its predecessors or the protest movements of 2009. Iranians are rising against both an authoritarian regime and a patriarchal system. We see it in the number of women who are taking off their veils in public spaces and realizing that they are able to make a real difference. The way back seems difficult.
The cause of women has become a priority in the country, including for many men. But it was also able to revive around itself other ethnic claims (of the various minorities present in Iran), economic, political and even ecological. Participation in protests through strikes or demonstrations by faculty, workers or the workers of the big bazaars can eventually be an important factor in the durability of the movement.
Are the now weakened authorities likely to step up repression?
The repression is very strong and continues. The government relies on several armed forces: the police, the Revolutionary Guards and the Bassidjis [une force paramilitaire iranienne]. According to researchers, the regime could rely on allied forces abroad, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Hachd al-Chaabi militia in Iraq, to increase repression. A priori this is currently not the case.
We must also consider army fatigue. Their repressive task is complicated by the number of cities mobilized and participants in the demonstrations. When the protests calm down in the streets and focus on universities or schools, the regime can use the opportunity to increase repression even more by intensifying persecution and arrests, for example by identifying people in videos who are in social networks run networks or people who are active on these channels.
Can we already see the consequences of this movement for Iranian society?
The impact on society is clearly visible. Years ago, a woman walking the streets without a veil could be attacked even by civilians. Today, part of society not only gets used to seeing women without veils in public spaces, but actually encourages it. In videos circulating on social networks, we see men applauding when women pass by without a veil, in jeans and a t-shirt, encouraging them. It has become a symbol of protest. These women have already changed something in this very patriarchal society with their repertoire of actions in this movement (e.g. twirling their veil in the air).