©Portal. FILE PHOTO: Combined photo of Brazilian President and re-election candidate Jair Bolsonaro during a news conference at Alvorada Palace in Brasilia, Brazil October 4, 2022, and former Brazilian President and favorite for the
By Anthony Boodle
BRASILIA (Portal) – Brazil’s presidential race has intensified a day ahead of a tense runoff between right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro and his left-wing opponent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, according to new polls released on Saturday.
Lula would receive 51.1% of the valid votes and Bolsonaro 48.9%, a difference equal to the margin of error in the MDA poll commissioned by transport lobby group CNT.
Polls by pollsters Datafolha and Quaest showed Lula with 52% of valid votes compared to 48% for Bolsonaro, narrowing the six percentage point lead he had three days ago, putting the president in a conspicuous position in functions at a distance to a win in the fast lane.
Most polls had found Lula the favorite for a third term, capping a notable political comeback after he was jailed for bribery, which was overturned.
However, Bolsonaro performed better than opinion polls predicted in the first round of voting on Oct. 2, and many analysts say the election could go either way.
The two attacked each other in a televised debate on Friday night, accusing each other of lying.
But with campaigns focused on swaying crucial switch votes, analysts suggested the president had barely gained ground since Lula first voted 5 percentage points in a race that polls had shown more or less stable for weeks lead won.
MDA was the most accurate of the key personal pollsters in the first round on Oct. 2, although everyone underestimated support for Bolsonaro.
Of the total vote, including whites and undecideds, Lula has 47% of voter support and Bolsonaro has 45%, up from the previous 42% two weeks ago. MDA surveyed 2,002 voters between October 26 and 28.
However, the latest opinion polls by the companies IPEC and AtlasIntel showed that Lula maintained a stable or slightly higher lead.
IPEC defeated the left with 54% to 46% of the valid votes, excluding the undecided and those planning to overrule. AtlasIntel, one of the most accurate pollsters in the first round, showed that Lula’s lead stayed at 7 percentage points.
(Reporting by Gabriel Stargardter and Anthony Boadle, edited in Spanish by Javier López de Lérida)