It’s been a little over eight months since Russia invaded Ukraine with the official intent, according to Vladimir Putin, of “denazifying the country,” but primarily to appropriate its territories and distance them from Western influence.
But while the Russian President has made some strides over the months, his strides are becoming increasingly rare and his powers appear to be running low as winter approaches. On the side of the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, we are trying by all means to hold the remaining areas.
How long will this war last? How will this end? Was such a long conflict possible?
The Journal asked its experts to grapple with these thorny questions about Europe’s biggest war since World War II.
Conversations in spring?
For Washington-based journalist Richard Latendresse, who is responsible for international reporting, it was clear that the Russian invasion would meet strong resistance and prolong the conflict.
“Even though we made the Ukrainians the losers due to a rather modest army, I suspected that when the Russians gathered at the border crossed the course, the westerners would tear their shirts and support them,” he explains.
Photo: AFP
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenksy, October 26.
However, Mr. Latendresse believes that the Kremlin’s motivation could wane in the coming months if it doesn’t make big strides. At the same time, Western aid to Ukraine is also likely to decline if the Republicans win a majority in Congress in the US midterm elections on November 8.
Photo: AFP
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday
“In my opinion we have at least enough for the winter. But I assume that the will to move diplomatically on one side or the other will be there in March-April,” he believes.
Richard Latendresse
A short term defeat
“What struck me first was the scale of the Russian attack, then the sustained Western support for Ukraine for so long,” says Luc Laliberté, columnist for the Journal and history teacher at Cegep Garneau
We wouldn’t be where we are today if Europe and the United States hadn’t maintained their support and supplies for Volodymyr Zelensky’s troops, he says. On the other hand, Russia’s resources are becoming increasingly limited: it is no longer making any headway on Ukrainian territory. Mr Laliberté also foresees an impending defeat for President Putin.
Photo: AFP
This elder examined the inside of her home which burned down yesterday after a Russian strike in Bakhmout.
“In my opinion, they will be content to stabilize their fortified castle in Donbass to try to save these positions. But there is also a possibility that Putin will be overthrown,” he explains.
“It’s far from all his generals sticking to his strategy, he may be playing his last cards,” adds Mr. Laliberté.
Luc Laliberte
An endless war
If he had foreseen that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia would continue, then it was more of a guerrilla war scenario, like we see in Afghanistan, that political scientist and columnist Loïc Tassé had in mind.
“But we quickly saw that while the Russian army was more imposing, it was particularly incompetent, ill-equipped and demoralized. We also underestimated the moral value of the conflict,” he says.
Photo: AFP
This man cleared debris from a destroyed building in Moshchun yesterday.
Optimistic in favor of the Ukrainians, Mr. Tassé sees an end to this conflict in a few years. He believes that Vladimir Putin will eventually focus on strengthening his positions in the south-eastern areas he has conquered so far.
“Donbass and Crimea will certainly not be finished in the short term … unless Europe and the US let go of Ukraine or the Russian president is overthrown,” the political scientist said.
Loïc cup
The nuclear threat
For military intelligence specialist Normand Lester, the Ukrainian resistance to the powerful Russian army came as a real surprise. Putin’s troops were expected to steamroll in a swift war that would have forced President Zelenskyy to flee the country.
“I overestimated the organizational and command skills of the Russians, not to mention US military intelligence supporting the Ukrainians. I never thought it would last,” he admits.
According to him, after hard fighting in winter, a result is still likely next spring. And while he has trouble predicting what will end the conflict, he believes “it will end badly for the Russians” one way or another. “Their armed forces are completely destroyed and the Ukrainians will not reveal anything. But there is always a risk that Putin, trapped in his corner, will decide to use tactical nuclear weapons,” he stresses.
Norman Lester
Do you have any information about this story that you would like to share with us?
Do you have a scoop that might be of interest to our readers?