The day after the debate ahead of the second round of Brazil’s presidential elections, which will be held this Sunday 30 October the country is preparing to make an all-important choice between a slow march toward fascism or theocracy and the survival of democracy. At least that is the opinion of one expert on the subject.
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In the face of this political spectacle with representations so far apart, what can we make of the tribalization of our political life? Several experts are already warning of the danger of this phenomenon here and south of our border in the United States.
However, nothing observed in North America prepares us to analyze the state of political life in Brazil, according to Edison Rodrigues Barreto Jr., a professor at the University of Ottawa and a researcher specializing in Brazilian issues, and South Americans who I am after of the vote asked on October 30th.
Screenshot CEIM | UQAM
Professor Edison Rodrigues Barreto Jr.
Here are 5 questions about the second round of the Brazilian presidential election.
What is at stake for Brazil as this second round of presidential elections begins?
Edison Rodrigues Barreto Jr. (EB): “We are facing a dispute that is unusual in Brazil and very similar to what is currently happening in several western democracies. Apparently, it’s the argument between those who no longer want the current President Bolsonaro (or what he represents) and those who don’t want the return of Lula da Silva (or what he is meant to represent).
He specifies: “In reality, we are dealing with a dispute between two clear political projects: either a political project of authoritarian, populist, violent, fundamentalist, privatist and isolationist power at the international level, or a project that seeks to restore republican normality and strengthen institutions , strengthen the foundations of Brazilian representative democracy and restore the pact that emerged from the last constitution of 1988 (from the post-military regime).
Are we underestimating Bolsonarism given Round 1 results?
EB: “Bolsonarianism will not go away if Bolsonaro loses the election. It’s similar to Trumpism. But I think it will lose its power when Bolsonaro leaves power. And there is a good chance Bolsonaro will be held accountable by the Brazilian judiciary.
“Bolsonaro’s party and its allies already control the Chamber of Deputies and almost the Senate. It will remain institutionally present for a while. On the other hand, it is not a very homogeneous group. Some pro-Bolsonaro have already started negotiations with Lula,” he explains.
What role did social networks play in this campaign?
EB: “In an extremely connected country (90% of Brazilian households are connected to the internet and almost 98% of Brazilian cities have at least 4G connection), the campaign has shifted to social networks. In the past, it was the large private television channel GLOBO that dominated the political scene and significantly influenced the election results. She’s still influential, but social media is even more so now.
Donald Trump: O Brasil é respeitado em todo o mundo graças a Bolsonaro. Vote in Bolsonaro! 🇺🇸🇧🇷
Compartilhem esse video, é muito important. pic.twitter.com/NmJZqaESb8
— Tradutor de Direita (@TradutordoBR) October 29, 2022
“If the campaign on these networks was that of personalities praising each candidate’s speech […] [,] finally, especially Lula’s, given the number of artists, athletes, etc. who support him, there was fake news after fake news on Bolsonaro’s side. There is even talk of a cabinet of hatred installed within the government and in which Bolsonaro’s son is heavily involved,” he adds.
What about evangelical groups?
EB: “Evangelical churches are key to understanding Bolsonaro’s rise to power and the dynamics of this election. We have elected evangelicals (several Pentecostal pastors) who form the political base of the Bolsonaro government (we also have elected officials who deal with armaments, of course, and those who represent the interests of most of the big landowners).
“But the most important thing is the change in dynamics. Evangelical churches are early supporters of Lula. They formed their political base in the past. During his first term, we grew from 26 million evangelicals in 2003 (Lula’s arrival) to more than 65 million in 2020. Aside from being influenced by fake news, particularly among poor voters or lower political awareness, it is above all a moral right (which can be seen across the continent with the political right), which ensured that they went from Lula to Bolsonrao,” he concludes.
Is this election still primarily a struggle for democracy?
EB: “Yes, because Bolsonaro is unpredictable. For example, we can see his final words readying to challenge the results as Lula regains the lead in the polls. However, Brazilian institutions, particularly the Supreme Court, remain very vigilant. The judiciary has become too involved in politics in recent years. For better or for worse.”
This weekend’s elections in Brazil offer Brazilians the opportunity to decide the future of their democracy and their forests. We all share hope for a brighter future in support of Brazil and the Amazon. https://t.co/liAs2VREMW
—Leonardo DiCaprio (@LeoDiCaprio) October 29, 2022
“On the other hand, because of the weight of Bolsonarism, because of the opinions of certain soldiers on democracy, even in the event of a victory for Lula, we must remain vigilant. And so if Bolsonaro wins […] [,] apocalyptic scenarios [réformes constitutionnelles, diminution du poids de la CS, élimination de nombreux droits sociaux et fondamentaux, destruction des lois environnementales] won’t be really easy scenarios anymore […]»
Against the background of latent tribal conflicts between two camps that cannot come to an agreement, the Brazilians must therefore appoint their next president on October 30th. Lula has a slim lead in the polls.