The essentials The Korean Peninsula is the scene of a crisis of rare severity, with missile launches near the two countries’ demarcation lines and territorial waters. Why do you fear a military escalation?
Following the missile launches from Pyongyang on the night of Tuesday November 1st to Wednesday November 2nd, South Korea denounced a “de facto territorial invasion” and responded by deploying three air-to-surface missiles. Since then, similar shots have followed one another, with 11:23 North Korean missiles identified this Wednesday, testifying to high tensions between the two peninsular countries.
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Maximum tension in Korea tonight: Pyongyang fires into South Korean territory, Seoul strikes back…unseen in 70 years
A serious but not unprecedented situation
One of the missiles fired from the North crossed the Northern Limit Line, which marks the de facto border with South Korea, prompting residents of the South Korean island of Ulleungdo to seek underground shelters. The North Korean Army also conducted more than a hundred artillery barrages in the maritime “buffer zone” between the two countries.
UPDATE: North Korea fired 3 missiles at South Korea, one of which fell into water just 57 km (35 miles) east of Sokcho, a major tourist hub pic.twitter.com/UBL9kJAimM
— BNO News (@BNONews) November 2, 2022
According to Antoine Bondaz, research associate at the Foundation for Strategic Research and teacher at Sciences Po, “tensions are high but the situation is not unprecedented”. “In 2010, La Dépêche du Midi researcher recalls, North Korea sank a South Korean frigate, causing 46 deaths.” The two-Korea expert, on the other hand, emphasizes that “this is the first time North Korea has launched a missile in South Korea’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).” “However, the EEZ is not part of Korean territorial waters,” so it’s not literally a “territorial invasion,” as South Korean President Yoon Seok-youl claims.
An explosive context
These incidents come on the sidelines of a joint military exercise between the United States and South Korea dubbed “Vigilant Storm” involving the two countries’ air forces. “North Korean reactions to this type of exercise are always very strong,” recalls Marianne Peron-Doise, associate researcher at IRIS and specialist on strategic issues in Asia, who was interviewed by La Dépêche. Hence the intensity of this exchange of fire: “The number of missiles fired is extraordinary, Kim Jong-il [le père de Kim Jong-Un] had only conducted 13 tests in 15 years,” Antoine Bondaz reminds us.
The risk of escalation could also take on global proportions: “The United States has a duty to protect South Korea in the event of an invasion from the north, just like China has to protect North Korea,” explains Antoine Bondaz.
The specialist on the two Koreas also points out that “North Korea has no missile interception capability.” “On the other hand,” continues Antoine Bondaz, “South Korea and the United States are armed against ballistic missiles. By launching so many missiles, Pyongyang wants to signal that North Korea can breach those defenses, but it also has large stockpiles of missiles. However, it is impossible to say whether this is really the case.”
A chilling escalation?
According to the FRS researcher, “The goal for both sides is to dominate the balance of power and demonstrate its capacity and determination. The two countries will be drawn into a vicious cycle of military preparation, but there is no aim of invasion, rather we want to maintain a deterrent by flexing our muscles.”
A position also shared by Marianne Peron-Doise: “We are in a constant here that is actually being made visible by South Korea.” According to the researcher, “North Korea maintains its desire for prestige and power through its military program, despite the failure of the Economic reform and the improvement of living conditions Seok-youl, means the end of a policy of rapprochement and greater firmness in the answers”.
Therefore, if the risk of escalation is “always present”, as Antoine Bondaz points out, the goal is not open war but to use “military objectives for political ends” by showing its strength and its determination. A dangerous game for these two countries, officially still at war, only paralyzed by a truce that seems more fragile than ever.