Joey Logano and Chase Elliott are already champions. On Sunday they will be battling for Kyle Busch as the only active driver with multiple cup championships.
Elliott seems to be the obvious favorite just considering season stats. But the next-gen car has imposed a steep learning curve on the 2022 season. Some riders started strong. Others played catch-up.
I’ve separated the regular season and playoff numbers to highlight how teams navigated this learning curve. In both categories, I give absolute numbers plus the driver’s rank compared to other full-time drivers.
Green indicates a driver’s rank in the top five in a metric. Metrics where the driver ranks between six and 10 are shaded yellow. The rare red disc signifies a placement outside of the top 10.
Joey Logano
Logano’s fifth career appearance in Cup Series Championship 4 makes him the most experienced driver in the group. At 32, he is also the oldest driver.
Logano is one of the more consistent drivers this season. He ranked in the top 10 in points for most of the regular season and stayed in the top 5 through the playoffs. His rankings improved or stayed the same from the regular season through the playoffs.
Wins at Darlington (Spring), Gateway and Las Vegas (Fall) put Logano second overall with Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick and Bell. All four riders are behind Elliott, who leads by five wins.
Logano’s loop data stats show a similar trend: mostly consistency or improvement across the board.
Logano led laps in 16 of 26 regular-season races (61.5%) and five of nine playoff races (55.6%).
The table above shows how competition intensified as the season progressed. For example, Logano improved his average running position, but his rank went down because many other drivers also improved.
Logano finished eighth in Phoenix in the spring. He led four laps, although three were yellow flagged. But given how much the teams have learned about the next-gen car since that first visit, I’m hesitant to give it or previous years’ trips to Phoenix very much weight.
I place more emphasis on Logano’s leading 55.5% of laps at the Fall Richmond race where he finished sixth. Richmond is a good comparison track for Phoenix.
In a season with more DNFs than usual, Logano had three in the regular season and one in the playoffs. For comparison, Larson, Denny Hamlin, and William Byron each have six DNFs.
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The No. 22 team doesn’t make many mistakes. During the regular season, the only penalties were sent to defense three times. They needed a replacement car twice and made unauthorized adjustments once.
The team suffered only one penalty in the playoffs. Keep in mind that I don’t count “pit stop before opening pit lane” as a penalty as teams usually do it on purpose.
With 10 incidents during the regular season and one in the postseason, Logano ranks 18th for crashes, spins and stalls that may prompt caution. For comparison, Ross Chastain leads this category with 17 for the season.
Logano has led a consistently strong campaign for the championship. His challenge is that a championship decided by a single race elevates excellence – and luck – over consistency.
Chase Eliot
Chase Elliott, who turns 27 later this month, has put a lot into his seven full-time Cup Series seasons. His list of achievements includes winning the championship two years ago.
Elliott dominated the regular season this year, winning the points race and earning the most wins. The playoff points he earned during the regular season were crucial as his playoff performance fell short of the bar he set during the regular season.
Elliott’s winning percentage didn’t change much in the playoffs. But with a 65.4% regular-season top-10 rate, he should have five to six top-10 playoff finishes instead of the three he’s earned. That’s another reason why he’s going into the last race of the season fourth out of four.
Elliott led almost every metric in the regular season except for starting position. (Teammate Larson took this award). But Elliott’s placements fell in the playoffs on every metric except guided rounds. He led laps in 15 of 26 regular-season races (57.7%) and four of the nine playoff races (44.4%).
Elliott led 50 laps on his way to an 11th place finish at Phoenix this spring. He placed fifth in Richmond that fall and second in New Hampshire. Both are good comparison tracks for Phoenix.
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Elliott only had two DNFs (7.7%) during the regular season. But he also had two DNFs in nine playoff races (22.2%).
Team #9 is a crack organization. They have only suffered five penalties in the regular season: three from Elliott on the pit road, one from the pit crew and they were sent back once because they needed a spare car. They didn’t pick up penalties in the playoffs.
Elliott was involved in 12 cautioned incidents (nine accidents and three spins) during the regular season and two in the playoffs. This puts him in ninth place compared to other full-time drivers.
Elliott is a perennial favorite. He has the tools he needs to win, but he must use them all in Phoenix. A bit of bad luck could end his hopes of a second title.
The crew chiefs
Like their drivers, Alan Gustafson (Elliott) and Paul Wolfe (Logano) are series champions. Gustafson won 2020 with Elliott. Wolfe won his championship with Brad Keselowski in 2012. Both are vying for a chance to join Adam Stevens as only the second active crew chief with multiple title wins.
Your experience will be important when quick decisions need to be made. With everything at stake, those quick decisions could mean the difference between winning a championship and contemplating what could have been.