3:56 p.m.: The option year is valued at $20 million and could bring the total value of the contract to six years, $122 million. per Tim Healey of Newsday. Healey adds that the opt-out comes after the third year of the deal. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal also reports that the deal includes a $12 million signing bonus.
3:44 p.m.: The Diaz deal is complete. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that Diaz has agreed to a five-year, $102 million deal pending a physical. Passan adds that the deal comes with a full no-trade clause and has an option for a sixth year. It also includes an opt-out.
3:39 p.m.: The Mets are on the verge of keeping their All-Star closer. Edwin DiazWith USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports The two sides are close to a five-year, $102 million deal. It will be the biggest job ever for a helper. The move takes one of the top free agents off the board before free agency officially opened.
Diaz, 28, was without a light for the Mets in 2022 and pitched 62 innings with 1.30 ERA balls. He knocked out more than half of the batters he faced while walking just 7.7% of the batters. He gave up just three homers all year and made 32 of his 35 saves. His fastball/slider combo has always been a nightmare for opposing sluggers, but he relied far more heavily on his slider in 2022 and went to him 58.1% of the time contrary to his usual usage in his mid-30s, and the results have been stunning. He led the majors in Reliever ERA, Strikeout Rate, and Reliever fWAR. The strikeout rate was so dominant that it was a tie Craig Kimbrell‘s efforts in 2012 for the third best qualified assist strikeout rate in MLB history. Only Aroldis Chapman2014’s 52.5% mark is better, but that compares to an 11.9% walk rate, well above Diaz’s this season.
Given Diaz’s historic platforming season, it’s little surprise that he’s signed a record-breaking deal for a reliever. It surpasses Chapman’s previous five-year mark, $86 million, signed with the Yankees in 2016, and it also gives Diaz the highest average annual value for a reliever, comfortably surpassing his $20.4 million mark Liam Hendricks‘ previous mark of $18 million.
Though Diaz has established himself as baseball’s top pick this season, the deal carries some risk, especially given that Diaz’s career as a whole has been something of a rollercoaster ride. After Diaz was drafted by the Mariners in the third round of the 2012 draft, Diaz developed into a Seattle bullpen powerhouse. He averaged a 2.64 ERA in Seattle over three seasons, highlighted by a phenomenal 2018 season in which he made 57 saves while posting a 1.96 ERA and finishing eighth in the AL Cy Young vote. That prompted the Mets to acquire him this offseason and send their own top prospect Jarred Kelenic and does most of it Robinson Cano‘s hefty contract to get him. This off-season blockbuster was there too Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, Justin Dunn and Gerson Bautista.
The deal initially looked shocking as Diaz posted a 5.59 ERA in his first season in Queens. He maintained his strong strikeout rates but struggled mightily with long ball and gave up an average of 2.3 home runs every nine innings. He could have been an outside non-bidder candidate this winter, but the Mets stuck with him, and their decision paid off immediately. Diaz bounced back in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, healing his long-ball issues and posting the best strikeout rate at that point in his career. He experienced a slight drop in 2021, posting a 3.45 ERA, although advanced indicators such as FIP suggested his performance was broadly consistent with his previous season (2.48 in ’21 vs. 2.18 in ’20).
Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Diaz has become a legitimate sports superstar in Queens. His performance speaks for itself, but his trumpet performance at Citi Field captivated all sports and sparked a string of other theatrical performances that seem to mimic the atmosphere Diaz’s performance creates. While no reliever is a sure thing, Diaz is the best in the game at what he does, and Mets owner Steve Cohen has shown he’s willing to make money when it comes to signing, or in this case re-signing Signing goes the top talent of the game.
It’s the first step in a potentially busy offseason for the Mets. Both their rotation and their bullpen will provide significant addressing. Diaz should join Tommy Jaeger, Adam Ottavino, Joely Rodriguez, Trevor May, Set Lugo and Trevor Williams as auxiliaries headed towards the free hand while Mychal Givens has a common option for next year, which means they will effectively have to completely rebuild their bullpen. Diaz is an important part of that, but the Mets will still be heavily involved in the auxiliary market this winter. On the spinning side of things Chris Bassitt has already turned down his reciprocal option and will be a free agent in the meantime Jacob de Grom He is expected to confirm in the coming days that he will be opting for free agency. Taijuan Walker has a $7.5 million player option with a $3 million buyout while Carlo Carrasco has a $14 million club option with a $3 million buyout, so the team may also be looking for a number of starters. That doesn’t even get into the offensive side of the ball, where the Mets will lose outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Tyler Naquin.
It’s shaping up to be another busy offseason that could see the Mets’ payroll soar to even greater heights. Cohen never seemed too bothered about payroll, but RosterResource currently has the Mets payroll for 2023 at $251 million, though that number doesn’t assume DeGrom will step out. Still, the team spent $282 million on player payrolls in 2022, and there’s definitely a way they can spend that or more in 2023 if they’re serious about competing in the tough NL East.