AMID THE Russia-Ukraine conflict, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar travels to Moscow on Monday for a bilateral visit.
Most of his meetings are scheduled for Tuesday, including a bilateral meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Trade and Industry Denis Manturov. Nothing is known about a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but it cannot be ruled out.
Jaishankar’s visit gains momentum as it comes days before the G-20 summit in Bali, scheduled for November 15-16. This is the first time since war broke out in Ukraine that Putin and Western leaders, including US President Joe Biden, are sitting in the same room.
Jaishankar’s trip is seen as a pivotal moment billing Delhi as a potential negotiator between the two sides. He last visited Moscow in July 2021.
It is understood that India has quietly intervened over the past few months as it stalled. In July, India held talks with Russia about grain shipments from Black Sea ports.
Many of these messages have been conveyed tacitly and Delhi is positioning itself as a player with credibility on both sides. But that didn’t always work.
The Washington Post reported over the weekend that Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered assistance in peace talks in a phone call last month with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. However, according to the report, Zelenskyy declined the offer.
The report said that according to a statement released by Zelensky’s office, “Zelensky told him Ukraine would not engage in negotiations with Putin, but said Ukraine was committed to a peaceful solution through dialogue.” The statement noted that Russia had deliberately undermined efforts to establish a dialogue, it said.
But as winter approaches in the conflict zone, there is a sense that both sides would want a truce before early next year, when they can regroup and resume conflict. Many see this as a potential opportunity for a truce, and Delhi could be a mediator between the two sides.
For Delhi, the bilateral aspect is crucial. This is the first winter in the last three years when the Russian military’s supply lines are under strain due to the ongoing eight-month war in Ukraine, while Indian and Chinese troops find themselves in a border situation in eastern Ladakh.
For India, which is dependent on Russia for its defense supplies, this is the most important pillar of the relationship.
The new element is energy ties, as Russia reportedly became India’s largest supplier of crude oil in October 2022 as refiners ramped up purchases of discounted sea oil. This has added a new element to relations with Moscow that has not gone down well with either Ukraine or Western partners.
Jaishankar’s visit is also expected to address that aspect, and officials said it will be part of his talks with Manturov, his counterpart for the Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation between India and Russia, the IRIGC-TEC .
“Issues related to bilateral economic cooperation are obviously being discussed in various fields,” MEA official spokesman Arindam Bagchi said Thursday before the visit.
It’s also worth noting that this year is Modi’s turn to visit Russia and when a possible visit comes next month, Jaishankar will be there to lay the groundwork.
In the run-up to Jaishankar’s visit, Putin has been effusive about Modi and India. He had praised India, calling its citizens “talented” and “driven,” a week after heaping praise on Modi, calling him a “true patriot.”