JN / Agencies
Today at 14:28
On the eve of the US midterm elections, Portuguese analysts are acknowledging that the campaign has gone well for Republicans and advocating a likely reelection of Donald Trump as president, with “Trumpism” providing “proof of life”.
“Donald Trump will use the more than likely Republican victory (at least in the House, in the state and state legislatures, and possibly in the Senate as well, albeit in that case still open) to even out a presidency bid as early as 2024.” , Germano Silva, an American political analyst for more than two decades, told Lusa.
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For Agostinho Pereira de Miranda, a lawyer and US politics expert where he lived for nearly a decade, this campaign was more than just a fan of Trump, it gave a boost to “Trumpism,” the conservative current among Republicans.
“This campaign proved that ‘Trumpism’ is very much alive and will endure in American politics, with or without Trump,” Pereira de Miranda told Lusa, recalling the fine performance of Republican California Governor Ron DeSantis. “His reelection is practically assured”.
These two analysts who will be present as pundits at a conference on the North American midterm elections at the Culturgest in Lisbon on Tuesday night agree that the political winds are favorable for Republicans, particularly those who appear most aligned with Trumps Line.
Germano Almeida explains that the few “classic” or “moderate” Republicans left in the party who tried to oppose Trump’s more radical line were brushed aside.
“Let Liz Cheney, a key member of the commission investigating the Jan. 6 attack on Capitol Hill and the number three Republican in Congress, say it: She was knocked out in the Wyoming primary, losing 37 percentage points to one candidate who adores Trump, Harriet Hageman,” argued Germano Almeida, author of five books on United States presidencies.
As the campaign ends today, both analysts also seem to agree on the risks of repeating episodes of contesting results, such as those instigated by former President Trump in the wake of Democrat Joe Biden’s election victory.
“There is a very significant number of Republican candidates who are deniers (they deny that Biden won the last presidential election). It’s almost certain that if the Democratic opponents win by a smaller margin, some of these Republican candidates will contest the result,” he admitted. Pereira de Miranda.
Germano Almeida believes that “Donald Trump opened a Pandora’s box in 2020,” recalling that Wisconsin Republican Senator Ron Johnson has already said that losing to Democrat Mandela Barnes was due to voter fraud will be.
“Unless Republicans manage to take over the Senate — and given the small disparities expected for races in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona or New Hampshire — it’s almost inevitable,” defends this analyst, arguing that the “Trumpist” style Republicans should “enter the democratic game, but only accept it if you win”.
Germano Almeida argues that the rulebook of “Trumpists” and “deniers” has three components that have recently prevailed in the politicalmedia ecosystem.
“1) the “fake news” industry, which takes the place of “mainstream media” for adherents of this wing; 2) political violence (in 2015 only 10% of Americans admitted the idea as legitimate, today it will be more than 40%); 3) Challenging the electoral system and future replacement of elected officials so that the same system can be controlled by those legitimizing the coup,” explained this analyst.
Regarding the Democratic campaign, the presence of current President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama at rallies is explained by Pereira de Miranda as trump cards for raising funds, “the fuel of campaigns.”
Germano Almeida is more skeptical about the effectiveness of Biden’s presence, while acknowledging that Obama remains “the big star of the Democratic campaign,” where he appeared to recall suffering a major defeat as president in the midterm elections. in the first term, but he was reelected two years later.
“The current moment of this administration has made President Biden a problem, not an electoral advantage for Democrats. This explains the delay in Joe Biden’s entry onto the campaign stage although this has increased in intensity in recent days,” Almeida defended.
The two analysts acknowledge that the two parties have come out with very different political agendas in the nowending campaign, with Republicans pushing on the issues of inflation, crime and immigration, and Democrats pushing on social issues such as abortion rights or the increase in the population Occupation.
“Voter sentiment around the world seems to favor the Republicans: Despite historically low unemployment (3.5%), the Biden government has not yet managed to create a feeling among the population that the worst is over,” defended Germano Almeida.
“Issues that might favor Democrats and on which President Biden has already shown concrete work in these nearly two years like climate, infrastructure, postCovid recovery, or helping families and students are not high on the agenda. priorities of this election,” concluded this analyst.
For Agostinho Pereira de Miranda, the big surprise of the campaign was the level of spending by both parties.
“According to civil society organizations monitoring the phenomenon, this election campaign will cost around $10 billion (the same amount in euros), an increase of around 150% compared to the 2018 midterm elections,” the lawyer recalled.