In an election held amid a relative improvement in the pandemic and the direct reflexes the war in Ukraine is evoking in Europe, France will go to the polls on the 24th worried about its pocket.
A survey conducted by the Ipsos Institute last Sunday (October 10) shortly after the first round of voting confirmed the figures worked out during the election campaign: for 58% of voters, purchasing power was the most important criterion in their voting decision, ahead of immigration and health, relevant for 27% and 26%.
According to the Ifop survey, the topic played a central role for 68% of voters, only health recorded more mentions (71%) in both cases each person was able to name more than one concern.
Analysis in the segmentation of this data helps to understand why Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen went into the second round and what their strategy for winning the election will be.
Farright voters are more concerned about spending power than the current centerright president. According to Ipsos, the question was decisive for 54% of those who voted for Macron, a rate that rises to 69% for Le Pen voters. For Ifop it was 55% and 80% respectively.
Out there
JeanYves Camus, political analyst and researcher at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations in France, believes that the candidate for the national meeting knew how to read the moment and from the outset focused her campaign on proposals related to the issue.
Inflation is currently high 4.5% in March, well above the 1.1% in the same month last year weighing on the strong recovery in GDP in 2021, up 7% and the slight increase in purchasing power of 1.9 % according to the French statistical institute (Insee).
With that, Le Pen put aside the antiimmigration speech that shaped her in 2017. “The program in this area is the same as it was five years ago, the French know their party’s position by heart,” says Camus. “And she left it to Éric Zemmour to say what was more radical than being able to pass moderately.”
The analyst also points out that the farright had the “intuition to know that the French are primarily interested in what they have in their wallets” and sold proposals that appealed directly to them.
One of them is the abolition of the French’s €138 (R$700) annual fee for public television, which is also included in Macron’s plan. Another common theme is the fight against the rise in energy prices, which pushed inflation up 28.9% in March. Le Pen promises to cut TVA a tax similar to Brazil’s ICMS from 20% to 5.5%, and the current president proposes keeping gas and electricity price freezes and fuel price cuts in place until the end of 2022, measures already in effect.
On another economic front, Macron is proposing to go ahead with his pension reform project, raising the minimum retirement age from 62 to 65, as he promised in 2017. His rival wants to lower it to 60 years in certain categories. The President also intends to triple the cap on a taxfree bonus paid by companies to employees, bringing the benefit to €6,000 (R$30,500). Selfemployed people earning minimum wage (EUR 1,540 or BRL 7,800) would have a tax credit that could reach EUR 550 (BRL 2,800) per year.
Le Pen, in turn, has bolder proposals, such as a 100,000 euro (R$508,000) interestfree line of credit for couples looking to buy a property, with the rest of the debt being paid off when they have a third child. In addition to a family income transfer program of 150 to 200 euros (R$760 to 1,000) and another to zero income tax for under30s.
It is a wellknown fact that boldness has its price. The campaign estimates the cost of the program at 13.3 billion euros (R$67.6 billion), but think tank Institut Montaigne puts it at 101.8 billion euros (R$517.5 billion), with 22.9 billion (R$116.4 billion) are in short supply for Proposals on Purchasing Power.
All of this would put even more strain on public finances in a country whose public debt is already 112.9% of GDP, Insee said. “Le Pen is banking heavily on governmentbacked policies, while Macron is making proposals to help companies pay employees better,” said Lisa ThomasDarbois, Montaigne’s economics and public finance analyst.
In that sense, the current presidential program would be better funded. Even so, his proposals would cost 44.5 billion euros (226.2 billion reais), of which 9.2 billion (46.8 billion reais) for purchasing power measures a figure also higher than the 6 billion estimated for the campaign EUR (30.5 billion R$).
China, Midland
According to ThomasDarbois, the differences are related, among other things, to the fact that implementation costs are not taken into account and that positive effects that are uncertain or not measurable for the institute are taken into account.
Besides financial sustainability, the analyst points to another problem in Le Pen’s program. “Certain measures, such as exempting youth under 30 from income tax, that do not apply today would require a constitutional amendment,” he says. “They are neither economically sensible nor legally possible.”
Camus also notes that in his program, Macron seeks to show the economic implications of what sets him apart from his rival in other areas. “The President is running a campaign in which he declares that he is the candidate for progress, for openness, for Europe, someone who will continue the reforms and face international issues,” he says, recalling what the socalled Republican Front in 2017.
“He explains that with Le Pen it would be difficult for us to be heard in the world, especially in Europe, and that this disastrous work would be extremely serious for the economy.”
However, the analyst emphasizes the changed attitude of the far right after the Ukraine war. Close to Vladimir Putin, she labeled Russia an aggressor and defended the admission of Ukrainian refugees. According to Camus, the candidate’s aim is not to leave the European Union but to try to reform the bloc from within which he doesn’t think is possible.
The tactic was also adopted by Zemmour, who received 7% of the vote. Even if their economic proposals were more liberal, the ideological harmony between the two should result in most of their constituents now supporting Le Pen.
Polls show that the farright still has to have the support of 18% of voters for the ultraleft JeanLuc Mélenchon (ranked third with 21.7%) in a movement that at first glance is peculiar. “These are people who didn’t necessarily vote for him because of his program but in protest and are willing to risk voting for him to get rid of the head of state,” says Camus.
The IpsosSopra Steria poll released this Saturday gives Macron 55.5% and Le Pen 44.5%.
The Macron and Le Pen proposals
purchasing power
macron
- maintain a freeze on gas and electricity prices and a 0.18 euro discount on fuel;
- Abolition of the audiovisual fee of 138 euros per year;
- Triple the purchasing power subsidy cap from €2,000 to €6,000.
The pencil
- Reduction of TVA (tax similar to ICMS) on fuel, electricity and gas from 20% to 5.5%;
- Abolition of the audiovisual fee of 138 euros per year;
- Exempt young people under 30 from income tax;
immigration
macron Expel foreigners who disturb public order
Le Pen Creating laws targeting only Islamic ideologies, “the true totalitarian threat of modern times”
health
macron Hire 50,000 nursing home nurses by 2027
Le Pen Termination of regional health authorities