As is well known, the war in Ukraine has led to a sharp increase in the price of wheat, which poses major problems to countries that are more dependent on wheat imports from Eastern Europe: for example Egypt, Libya, Lebanon and Turkey, where the hot climate and dry favors not the cultivation of the grain. One of the states most at risk at the moment is Tunisia, where there have been signs of serious shortages in many basic commodities for several weeks and where the risk of a food crisis would add to what has been a severe economic and political crisis for years at some point.
The war causes several problems, as Ukraine earned the nickname “the granary of Europe” due to the fact that many crops were grown on its great plains, most of which were intended for export. Together, Russia and Ukraine accounted for almost a third of total grain exports, while Russia, together with Belarus, always provided a third of the nitrogen and potash fertilizers commonly used in European crops.
Imports from these countries are particularly important for many African countries, including Tunisia, which has counted on imports from Ukraine and Russia to meet 56 percent of its annual grain needs over the past five years, according to an analysis based on United Nations data .
The consequences of the general increase in commodity prices in the country have been felt since the beginning of the Russian invasion and continue to be observed.
In general, Tunisians consume large quantities of bread, a commodity now only available by queuing in front of shops and at a much higher price than in peacetime. A baker from the town of Sidi Bouzid told the Middle East Eye news site that he had received about half his usual supply of flour and was already gone by 9am. Many other bakers had to close their shops for days because of the shortage of flour, which, together with pumpkin seed oil, is one of the scarce goods on supermarket shelves and is in great demand. In addition, some cities have begun rationing bread, as is done in grocery stores with other basic necessities such as sugar and flour.
Long lines for #loaf Bakeries close early, supplies are rationed as wheatbased staples become scarce and increasing #food prices. Bakeries usually stay open all week during the holy month, bread availability is never a problem. # Ramadan2022 sees v. different #Tunisia pic.twitter.com/OWDMEY6Xvh
Alessandra Bajec (@AlessandraBajec) April 4, 2022
The impact of the war in Ukraine on grain and fertilizer exports, combined with the ongoing economic crisis, could create a particularly complex situation for Tunisia.
Even before the war began, Tunisia was going through the worst economic crisis since independence from France in 1956; The coronavirus pandemic then shrank Tunisia’s economy by more than 8 percent, compounding the problem of rising inflation and widespread unemployment.
In recent years, the Tunisian government has heavily financed grain imports to keep prices low and provide food security for the population.
Today, however, on the one hand it is struggling to pay for the little wheat it can import and on the other it is trying to resist until prices fall again, arguing that there are enough stocks to mature the national Wheat’s to reach harvest next June. However, the type of wheat grown in Tunisia is suitable for making semolina or pasta, but not for making bread.
Long line in front of the bread shop in Bhar Lazreg in Tunis today! I’ve been seeing queues like this in Bab Souika and Kram for the past two weeks! pic.twitter.com/gGFjoITAMP
Shreya Parikh شريا پریکھ (@shreya_parikh) April 2, 2022
Another problem is the rising cost of fuel and fertilizers, which are helping to aggravate farming problems.
Some Tunisian companies producing fertilizers are running out of chemical components essential to their production; moreover, the same companies have not received any new shipments for weeks due to the West’s harsh economic sanctions against Russia. Without fertilizers, even the state’s wheat harvest could be seriously affected. The government is currently proposing to buy an alternative product based on ammonia, which is manufactured in Spain but costs twice as much as conventional fertilizers.
Some bakers try to get hold of some flour on the black market, paying even more than they would normally find it at. Speaking of 20kilo sacks of flour, which normally cost 14 Tunisian dinars the equivalent of around 4.30 euros a baker in Tunis said: “It’s better to buy for 20 dinars than to have to close the shop.”
Also read: Rising grain and fertilizer prices threaten to trigger a global food crisis