A Quinnipiac University poll released this week found that just 26% of Hispanic voters polled approved of Biden’s performance as president, the lowest rating of any demographic group.
Various experts agree that a sharp drop in support among Hispanic voters could herald disastrous midterm elections for Biden and the Democrats in states like Texas and Florida.
“If Latinos disapprove of the President’s performance, how might that affect November’s congressional elections? This could be translated in two ways. It could result in Latinos deciding to support a non-Democratic candidate, whether Republican or Independent, that remains to be seen in various congressional districts,” said Mark Hugo López, director of research on race and ethnicity at Pew Research Center.
“But the other possibility that could happen is that Latino voters aren’t motivated to vote,” Lopez added.
The poll showed Biden’s approval rating at 33%, the lowest point for the president in that poll. But his electoral approval was even lower at 26%.
Demographic subgroups such as Hispanics are notoriously difficult to capture in national measurements. Language barriers, geographic isolation, and small or improperly weighted sample sizes can skew the results.
Photo: USA Today.
Still, the poll for Biden continued to trend down. A poll from the same university released March 30 found Biden’s approval rating at 36%, with 32% of Hispanics polled saying they approve of his performance as president. “I think there’s a lot of this narrative in DC among Democrats that only Latinos talk about immigration,” said John Anzalone, a pollster. “But they worry about the same things that everyone else is worried about. It’s always about the economy, inflation, healthcare or schools.”
The poll found that 31% of Hispanics view inflation as the country’s most pressing issue, more than any other issue. 12% of Hispanics named the invasion of Ukraine as the most pressing issue, and 12% said immigration was the most pressing issue.
According to a March report from the Pew Research Center, 50% of Hispanic voters say they are more likely or likely to vote for the Democratic candidate in their constituency, while 28% said the same for the Republican candidate. That’s roughly in line with pre-2018 polls, according to López, an indicator that there isn’t a massive shift in Hispanic party affiliation, as some Republicans have claimed.
But Hispanic communities have historically been difficult to get to the polls, and a combination of low voter enthusiasm and restrictive new local election laws could reverse gains on that front.