the father of Argentine Constitution, Juan Bautista Alberdi in his book ‘The War Crime‘ (1872) references: ‘Wars become less frequent as the responsibility for their effects rests with those who promote and incite them.and with it – in almost a century – the end of the nuclear escalation which had its turning point in Soviet missile crisis in Cuba and which culminated in the signing by kennedy j Yrushchov of Nuclear Test Suspension Agreement (1962) and the implementation of Doctrine of peaceful coexistence.
However, after the Ukraine conflict, we have to witness the return of the Cold War between Russia and the United States (a Cold War 2.0). American withdrawal from the INF Treatyto the consequent reactivation of the nuclear race and a possible repeat of the missile crisis that would be its epicenter Kaliningrad.
NATO and the Doctrine of Containment
The harsh statements of Joe Biden At Russia (“Putin is a war criminal“) and the implementation of sanctions to consolidate economic suffocation and the financial hunger from Moscow following the Ukraine conflictstaged the arrival of Cold War 2.0 and the return of geopolitical theses George Kennan. Therefore, NATO would have chosen to increase the resources allocated to military development and to inform about its plans for cooperation in this area with countries such as Ukraine, the Baltic countries, Georgia, Moldova and Poland after the Ukraine crisis, and had done so increased its military presence in Eastern Europe – stationed four battalions in the Baltics and Poland and twenty F-16 fighter jets, which would take the total contingent of its troops in Europe to surpass 75,000 elements.
In practice, this was a violation of NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997, by which NATO ruled out “the permanent stationing of a substantial and additional contingent of combat troops in Eastern Europe” and the return to the Doctrine of Containment, the foundations of which were revealed by George F. Kennan in his test ‘The Sources of Soviet Behavior – published in the magazine Foreign Affairs in 1947, and its main ideas in the quote “Soviet power is impervious to the logic of reason, but very sensitive to the logic of violence‘. In this context, the possible inclusion of Sweden j Finland in the military structures OTANthe fifth phase of deployment of the missile shield in Europe (EUR DAM) and the reinforcement of the armed forces by four new battalions stationed on Europe’s border with Russia.
Will Joe Biden’s myopia spark a new missile crisis?
After disagreements between Washington and Moscow over the one-sided statement out of independence out of Kosovo, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Barack Obama would have parked the Anti-Ballistic Missile Shield (NDM) project and through “a new mobile missile defense system” with the intention of making Russia a necessary partner in ensuring world peace and stability. First, Russia and NATO agreed on cooperation in creating the missile defense shield for Europe in November 2010 at the bilateral Lisbon summit, then was it is important for Moscow that “NATO offered real guarantees that this system would not attack Russia and had a legally binding document on this“.
However, the Obama administration (after the mimetic inertia of Bush administration out of ningunear in Russia), refused to offer such guarantees in writing, and in September 2009 President Obama (under pressure from the establishment or the so-called US shadow power) authorized the implementation of the new European anti-missile defense system – or the European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) , which is strictly a global missile defense shield in which intercept vectors located on mobile platforms can shoot down targets in space.
In practice, the fifth phase of the deployment of the anti-ballistic missile shield in Europe (Euro AMD) began in May 2016, when the ballistic defense system was put into operation Aegis on land based on Deveselu (Romania), only 600 km from the peninsula crimea and after the Cold War dynamics (action-reaction), Russia will install itself Kaliningrad the rockets Iskander equipped with multiple nuclear warheads, as well as anti-aircraft missiles S-400 with what in the words of the political scientist Vladimir Abramov “Kaliningrad province will once again play the role of a weapon for the temple of Europe, as it did two decades ago‘.
Also the President Wladimir Putinshared a message to the Federal Assembly warning: ‘Russia could additionally deploy the Tsirkon hypersonic missile, which, with a speed of Mach 8 and the ability to be launched from submarines, could reach any US command center in five minutes; and the same applies to the Burevestnik cruise missile and the Poseidon nuclear submarine drone‘.
However, Biden’s geopolitical short-sightedness in his obsession with subduing Russia will fuel resentment against Putin – a concert that could lead to a repeat of the Kennedy-Khrushchev missile crisis (October 1962). On this occasion, with Kaliningrad as the epicenter, with the balance eventual implementation of the G-2 or Primus Inter Pares USA-Russia.