With Russia’s war against Ukraine dragging on longer than the Kremlin reportedly anticipated, various pundits and government officials have expressed concern that Russian President Vladimir Putin may eventually resort to nuclear weapons out of desperation.
Putin began his invasion of Ukraine on February 24, and many expected the Russian military to quickly crush Ukrainian resistance. But on March 13, Viktor Zolotov, the head of the Russian National Guard, publicly acknowledged that “everything is not going as fast as we would like.” Weeks later, Russia suffered significant setbacks, including a withdrawal from Kyiv in an embarrassing turn of events for Putin.
“Given the potential desperation of President Putin and the Russian leadership, given the setbacks they have faced militarily to date, none of us can take lightly the threat posed by the possible resort to tactical or low-yield nuclear weapons . ‘ CIA Director William Burns said Thursday during a speech at Georgia Tech.
Burns’ warning is not a new concern for US officials. In 2018, the US Department of Defense, in its review of the nuclear stance documenting the role of nuclear weapons and security, stated that Russia could deploy a “limited initial use” nuclear weapon in a scenario that would “de-escalate” a conflict on terms favorable to Russia .”
Should Putin use a nuclear device, even a small tactical weapon, he risks full-blown war. In an interview with the BBC in mid-March, Polish President Andrzej Duda said that Russia’s use of any weapons of mass destruction could prompt a NATO response.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has also warned Russia against using nuclear weapons.
“NATO is there to protect and defend all allies, and we are sending a very clear message to Russia that a nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought,” Stoltenberg said during a March 23 news conference. “Any use of nuclear weapons will fundamentally change the nature of the conflict, and Russia must understand that nuclear war should never be fought and it can never win nuclear war.”
As the war in Ukraine drags on, experts fear that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin may eventually resort to nuclear weapons in desperation. In this photo, Putin is seen walking near a Russian fighter outside Moscow on June 17, 2010. Getty
Despite the warnings, Putin may already be feeling the pressure to resort to such tactics as the invasion drags on. A senior US Air Force officer working on nuclear weapons told Newsweek in a previous story that intelligence agencies are concerned that Russia could deploy short-range Iskander-M ballistic missiles.
“The use of nuclear weapons is inconceivable, but the Russians are becoming increasingly desperate and their primary tactical nuclear system is now a proven weapon,” the officer said. “That’s often a crucial factor in a decision-maker’s mind – the promise of tactical success.”
Russian press secretary Dmitry Peskov told CNN on March 22 that there could be situations where Russia would justify the use of nuclear warfare.
“Well, we have a concept of internal security, and it’s public,” Peskow said. “You can read all the reasons for using nuclear weapons. So if it’s an existential threat, a threat to our country, then it can be used according to our concept.”
Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the country’s Security Council, told The Guardian last month about four situations in which Russia would be entitled to turn to its nuclear arsenal.
“Number one is the situation when Russia is hit by a nuclear missile. The second case is any use of other nuclear weapons against Russia or its allies,” Medvedev told the newspaper. “The third is an attack on critical infrastructure that will have crippled our nuclear deterrent. And the fourth case is when an act of aggression is committed against Russia and its allies, endangering the very existence of the country itself, even without the use of nuclear weapons, that is, with the use of conventional weapons.”
The US has reportedly already begun preparing for the event that Russia uses nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine. The New York Times reported in March that the Biden administration had assembled a team of national security officials to chart a response should Putin turn to chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Efforts continue to be made to end the conflict before such weapons are used. Bloomberg reported Sunday that Roman Abramovich, a Russian oligarch and Putin ally, is reportedly trying to restart peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Talks between the two countries have stalled in recent weeks after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that Russia had attacked Ukrainian civilians and that its forces were committing “genocide”.
The Ukrainian leader is also among those who have publicly addressed the threat to Russia of using nuclear weapons.
Referring to Burns’ comments about not taking the nuclear threat lightly, Zelensky told CNN, “We shouldn’t wait for the moment when Russia decides to use nuclear weapons… We need to prepare for that.”
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Foreign Ministry for comment.