Bobby Portis, Jackson Hayes Worth Navigating

Well, we had a lot of fun on Super Tray Day, didn’t we? Thursday was our biggest assist win of the season when we converted a couple of corners from the first goal in the basket, 8-1 on Ivica Zubac and 17-1 on our long-range shot Trey Lyles. We even had a few there parlay Zubak and Lyles together for an insane 161-1 strike!

Today we’re back in the well with some of these lesser known big men looking to continue our success, including one name we already won on Wednesday. The role of these young big men is constantly changing in the modern NBA, and we can play the role of their props when we are aware of the role reversal.

We will be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA predictions with the props posted by various bookmakers. Below I have outlined the five bets I play, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds for these player details.

Props and selection of NBA players

Isaiah Jackson, over 10.5 points (-120), over 14.5 points (+255)

We crashed a couple of overs from Isaiah Jackson on Wednesday night and had a lot of success scoring his traditional overs and scoring his alternate overs from +350. We’ll be back tonight for the same two props.

Well, not exactly the same, as the books are starting to adjust to Jackson’s production and adjust – but they haven’t adjusted enough yet.

Like others in the league, Jackson thrives as a hybrid big man, with the peppy rookie getting tons of minutes and running for the Indiana team in a full overhaul. The Pacers are giving their rookie big minutes and more work than he usually saw at this point because they are working hard to develop Jackson and see what they have. And right now, they seem to have something very good.

Jackson had 16 points and five boards last, bringing his averages to 15.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game in his last five starts (not counting one game when he left due to an injury in the first minute). Rebounding and conditioning will take some work, but Jackson’s vertical threat gives him easy buckets on the ring and that should continue against a Pistons team that doesn’t defend very well these days.

This season, Jackson has played at least 15 minutes eight times. He’s averaging 15.0 points per game in those games and has broken that line in seven of them, hitting that mark more than 88% of the time, even as the line begins to correct. He also scored 15 or more points in half of those games, hitting the bench 50% of the time versus the implied 28% here.

Jackson also has multiple blocks in four of his last five starts, so you can play that line as part of the same parlay if you like, with over 1.5 blocks at -140. The Pistons are in the top 5 in terms of the number of blocks allowed to their opponents.

The rookie gets minutes and we bet on minutes and pure athleticism that keeps turning into results. We predict Jackson at 12.4 points and I will play with traditional points down to -150.

Bobby Portis, over 8.5 rebounds (+105), double-double (+190)

Bobby. Bobby. Bobby.

If you close your eyes, you can probably still hear the rabid Milwaukee Bucks fans cheering for one of their favorites on their way to the title in the latest playoffs. Bobby Portis plays like a maniac in every way. His energy is contagious to both his teammates and fans, and he plays with reckless energy, chasing rebounds and looking for every ball 50/50.

Of course, you don’t have to tell the Bulls fans about this. Even before Bucks supporters fell in love with Portis, the Chicago hometown crowd adored their former Arkansas star. Portis has always been a fan favorite wherever he goes and it won’t be a big surprise to see him being cheered on the road tonight.

But we need rebounds, not chants. And fortunately, we should get them too.

Portis has been the de facto starting center for the Bucks this season, playing alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo with Brook Lopez still uninjured. And Portis has been a very consistent producer for the defending champions. He played big minutes for most of the season, usually playing somewhere in the 27 to 34 range unless it’s a breakthrough, and this big division battle shouldn’t be a breakthrough.

In games lasting at least 27 minutes this season, Portis is averaging 10.2 rebounds per game, and he has broken that mark in 24 of 37 such games, hitting more than 65% of the time there are minutes. This includes his last game against the Bulls when Portis scored 13 boards. This makes this rebound prop a great play, especially on positive juice.

But we can become even more aggressive. 20 of the 24 times Portis has achieved this, he has also double-doubled. He missed three times on one rebound and had a rare anomalous scoring game on another. This means that Portis has double-doubled in 54% of his games this season when he plays 27 minutes or more. This should imply a line with little energy and a minus ahead, but we get almost 2-to-1.

I’ll split my bet and play a bit in both. The numbers tell us that Portis is unlikely to win a rebound and not get a double-double, and the difference is close enough to be worth it when we get nearly double the payout.

We predict Portis with 17.1 points and 10.0 rebounds outright. I will play rebounds down to -120 and double-double Portis down to +160 or better.

Jackson Hayes, over 10.5 points (-104)

Yeah, we’re going back to the well with another one of those big boys. For a while, it looked like these guys were starting to lose their place in the league and the NBA was getting smaller, leaving some of these big players out of position. Guys like Jackson Hayes aren’t big enough and bulky enough to defend many traditional centers, but they also weren’t fast enough or versatile enough to play the oversized wing that was when the power forward position was in trend.

However, lately we have seen these hybrid players thrive, often playing alongside another big man. Robert Williams has been successful in this role in Boston, and lately young Hayes has quietly seen a similar statistical breakthrough with the Pelicans. Hayes plays a four-man alongside Jonas Valanciunas rather than supporting him in the center, and this combination works.

The Pelicans’ defense has been revitalized, with Hayes starting in fourth place posting a pristine defensive rating of 99 in his starts when he’s on the floor, and they have a terrific 149 offensive rating to boot. New Orleans was 6-2 in those Hayes starts, and the tally was there too. He averages 14.0 points and 7.5 rebounds over eight starts.

Minutes are not yet a guarantee for Hayes because he still gets into trouble with quick fouls from time to time, so that and Utah’s tough defense are the biggest risks here. But when Hayes plays 25 minutes or more this season, he’s averaging 16.0 points per game and breaking that mark in nine of 10 games, which is 90 percent shooting. And even when that falls to 20+ minutes, he’s still averaging 14.3 points per game and hitting that mark in 79% of his 14 such games.

If you want to follow Isaiah Jackson’s trend and bet that Hayes will score 15+ points, he has +250 to do so. We project it at 15.1 points. But as tough as Utah is, and as Hayes is a little less established, I tend to bet big on the traditional over. Our Props Tool rates this at 10 out of 10 and I’ll be playing down to -130.

Bonus bets

• Buddy Heald, over 3.5 triples (+115 DraftKings): Hield excelled in Indiana, averaging 3.5 triples on 9.3 attempts and hitting 38% of his triples. He had nine or more attempts in 63% of his games for the Pacers, and in half of them he exceeded this figure, and the volume did not drop with the game of Malcolm Brogdon. Plus the juice makes it worth playing on this volume.
• Isaac Okoro, over 6.5 points (-125 DraftKings): Okoro starts out of necessity for the Cavs, and while he’s not a very good scorer, that’s just a super low bar for someone who plays so much. He has lost in five of his last six games but has fallen behind him every time, and since joining the starting XI he is still over 6.5 points in 11 of 17 games (65%). In 25-plus minutes this season, Okoro is averaging 9.2 points per game and breaking that mark 69% of the time.