Soldiers march during celebrations to mark the 110th anniversary of the Xinhai Revolution, which overthrew the Qing dynasty and led to the founding of the Republic of China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, October 9, 2021. NOEL SELIS / AFP
With an external environment that “remains uncertain and tends to become more complex and troubling” – the only hint of a war in Ukraine – China is forecasting lower growth this year than in 2021 – about 5.5% – but a sharp rise in the military budget: +7.1%. These are the main elements emerging from the presentation of the 2022 budget and Prime Minister Li Keqiang’s speech on Saturday, March 5, at the opening of the annual session of the Chinese Parliament.
A ritual exercise, this speech is the result of a lengthy administrative process that indicates the government’s priorities for the current year. For 2022, they are clear: “Do everything to brilliantly open the 20th Party Congress,” which will be held in the fall. International issues traditionally occupy only a marginal place. Therefore, tensions with the United States or the war in Ukraine are not explicitly mentioned. They will be addressed by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi early next week during another ritual event: his only annual press conference.
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In Taiwan, the Prime Minister added something new compared to his previous speeches. If it’s always about “promoting the peaceful development of relations between the two banks,” the word “peaceful” is important, says Li Keqiang. “We are determined to fight separatist activities aimed at the independence of Taiwan and beyond. intervention. In previous years, there were no interference in speech. The increase in military spending even faster than in 2021, when it increased by 6.8%, is another signal sent to Westerners, even if China’s military budget (about 209 billion euros) remains much lower than U.S.A. United States (709 billion euros).
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“More Aggressive Behavior of Xi Jinping”
However, few observers believe that China is ready to take military action against Taiwan in the near future. A few months before the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China, the time has come for “the general stability of society.” American Jude Blanchett, an expert at CSIS (Center for Strategic International Studies) in Washington, rather expects “more aggressive behavior from Xi Jinping” after Congress. The Chinese leader has shown relative moderation over the past two years, in part because of the Covid-19 crisis, he said.
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