A pro-Russian rebel tank is seen March 11, 2022 in separatist-held Donetsk, Ukraine.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
The “Battle for Donbass” appears to be underway in Ukraine as Russia focuses its war machine on the eastern region – a key strategic, political and economic target for the Kremlin.
After Russia mostly withdrew from the northern parts of Ukraine, Russia’s long-awaited offensive in the east appeared to be starting in earnest on Monday, as its forces unleashed attacks on a number of areas in Donbass.
“Now it can be said that Russian troops have started the battle for Donbass, for which they have been preparing for a long time,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday, adding that “a very large part of the entire Russian army is now focused on this offensive.”
CNBC takes a look at the three main reasons Russia is now focusing on eastern Ukraine:
1. Russia needs a “victory”
The Donbass region has long been a focus of Russia and includes two Russian-backed separatist “republics” in Luhansk and Donetsk. They have been fighting Ukrainian forces for years.
Now comes Russia’s seeming reorientation on the area after few military successes in the rest of Ukraine, despite nearly two months of fighting.
“[Russian President Vladimir] Putin has completely abandoned his more ambitious goals,” former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul commented on Twitter on Tuesday, saying it was “very remarkable how they called their war ‘special military operation in defense of Donbass’. have changed ‘.”
Russia’s armed forces appear to have been ill-prepared and ill-equipped to deal with the harsh combat conditions in Ukraine and the country’s heavy resistance. While Moscow has wreaked much destruction, it has achieved relatively little – and has failed to bring about the rapid fall of the capital Kyiv and the ouster of the pro-Western Zelenskyy government.
Analysts believe this has prompted Russia to refocus its efforts on fully taking over strategically important cities in southern Ukraine and the Black Sea, such as the port cities of Mykolaiv, Mariupol and Kherson. The latter two are almost entirely under Russian control, despite fierce resistance from Ukrainian fighters.
Russia is also thought to be attempting to take over Odessa further up the coast to the west, although this is seen as a much more difficult task.
The Kremlin appears keen to declare some sort of victory in Ukraine by May 9 – a day known as “Victory Day” and of great national importance to Russia as it marks the Soviet Union’s defeat at Nazi Germany marked at the end of World War II.
The Kyiv Independent newspaper reported in March that Russian troops had been told the war had to be over by May 9, citing information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Russian Defense Ministry could not be reached at CNBC’s request for immediate comment.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks while surrounded by Ukrainian soldiers as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues, in Bucha, outside Kyiv, Ukraine, April 4, 2022.
Marko Djurica | Reuters
Zelenskyy of Ukraine noted on Monday that an increasing number of attacks were recorded in the Donbass near the cities of Izyum in Kharkiv district and Sloviansk in Donetsk district and around Severodonetsk and Popasna in Luhansk region further east.
Separately, a senior US defense official confirmed on Monday that Russian forces have increased their presence in Ukraine, with almost all of its ground forces stationed in the eastern and southern parts of the country.
2. Russia wants a land bridge
A “victory” in eastern Ukraine is not only crucial for Russia in terms of military strategy; it also has significant economic value.
First, the Donbas itself is a heavily industrialized region known for its coal mining and large coal deposits that Russia could potentially access if it annexed the entire region.
And second, control of the region would also allow Russia to create a “land bridge” to Crimea, which it annexed from Ukraine in 2014 and which is a key military and commercial center for Moscow on the Black Sea.
This push to reach Crimea by land is one of the main reasons that the southern port city of Mariupol – which lies directly on the way to a possible land bridge – has been the focus of Russian attacks and Ukrainian resistance: victory or defeat great consequences for both sides.
Tanks of pro-Russian troops drive along a road during the Ukraine-Russia conflict in Ukraine April 17, 2022.
Alexander Ermochenko | Reuters
Eurasia Group founder and president Ian Bremmer noted that Russia is now in “phase two” of its invasion, with different strategic goals.
This includes “capturing the entire Donbass,” including Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, he said in an emailed comment on Monday, and securing a land bridge from the region to Crimea.
He said Russia’s other goals are complete control of the city of Kherson – crucial to securing the freshwater canals to Crimea that the Ukrainians have cut off – and capturing “a buffer area to keep everything comfortable”.
3. Russian identity politics
The Donbass region is also important for Russia when it comes to its own national identity and its influence on former Soviet territories – and the people within it who still identify as Russians.
In fact, Russia’s self-proclaimed “defense” of ethnic Russians in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions (which are predominantly Russian-speaking) constituted a large part of its justification for invading Ukraine.
The area is no stranger to conflict; The self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk have been the scene of fighting between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine. Figures vary, but it is believed that around 14,000 people were killed during the ongoing but minor conflict in the region.
In this picture taken on April 13, 2022, Russian soldiers guard the Luhansk power plant in the city of Shchastya. – *EDITORS NOTE: This image was taken during a trip organized by the Russian military.*
Alexander Nemenov | AFP | Getty Images
Aside from the conflict, analysts say that over the past eight years, Russia has sown the seeds that would allow it to annex the Luhansk and Donetsk regions by attempting to “Russify” the territories by offering local residents since 2019 offering Russian passports and Russian citizenship.
Political analysts saw it as a cynical harbinger of a raid because Russia could defend such a move by saying it was trying to “protect” its citizens from Ukraine. Russian state media have focused on the flight of Donbass residents in recent weeks, repeatedly accusing the Ukrainian military of war crimes in the region, allegations that Ukraine has denied.
For its part, Russia has repeatedly denied supporting rebels in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, despite evidence of financial support for the breakaway “republics” and the use of Russian weapons by separatists in the fight against Ukrainian forces.