“We can now say that Russian troops have started the battle for Donbass.” In a speech broadcast on Telegram on Monday, the Ukrainian President announced the start of the Russian offensive in the east of the country. “A very large part of the entire Russian army is now devoted to this offensive,” said Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
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Russia confirmed Tuesday, April 19, that it is conducting a major military offensive in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and reiterated its desire to “liberate” Donbass. The Russian army carries out the tasks set by the Chief of the Armed Forces [Vladimir Poutine] for the special military operation,” said Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who has not spoken publicly since the end of March.
Here’s what we know about this new phase of the war in Ukraine, 55 days after the start of the invasion by the Russian army.
Fighting and shelling in several cities of Donbass
“It’s hell. The offensive has begun that we have been talking about for weeks, Ukrainian Lugansk governor Sergiï Gaidaï said on Facebook as the conflict between government forces and pro-Russian separatists has raged since 2014. in this area of the country.
“There are fighting in Rubizhne and Popasna” and “incessant fighting in other peaceful towns,” added Sergei Gaidaï, confirming that Kreminna was “unfortunately under the control of Orks,” the derogatory nickname given to the Russian military. The city, which had around 18,000 inhabitants before the war, is located about fifty kilometers north-east of Kramatorsk, the Ukrainian capital of the Donbass region. However, adviser to the Ukrainian Presidency Oleksiy Arestovych assured that “the Russian occupiers have not yet captured Kreminna” and “bitter street fighting” is taking place there.
The Ukrainian military also warned late Monday of a high threat of shelling in the southern Mykolaiv region.
The intense struggle for Mariupol continues
The Mariupol City Council on Tuesday morning reported on the shelling of the Azovstal factory and assured via telegram that “at least 1,000 civilians – mainly women, children and the elderly – are in the underground bunkers” of the metallurgical complex. According to France Télévisions special envoy Luc Lacroix, Azovstal is the last nest of Ukrainian resistance. “As we get closer, it’s a real tide of fire. (…) This battle of Mariupol is still mobilizing the Russian and separatist forces. It prevents them from directing all their firepower further north, still in Donbass, where to they want to carry their big offensive,” he explains. “Our soldiers are still here. They will fight to the end,” said Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Chmygal.
The full capture of the port city of Mariupol would be an important strategic move for the Kremlin, as it would allow the Russians to consolidate their territorial gains on the coast along the Sea of Azov, taking the Donbass, which is partially controlled by their supporters, with them of Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014.
Still “many civilians” entrenched
For the past few days, the Ukrainian authorities have been urging residents of these regions to move west. When that call was heard, many residents chose to stay. As the offensive intensifies, these evacuations become increasingly dangerous. At least four civilians were killed in Russian shelling while trying to flee Kreminna, said Governor Sergei Gaidai, who urged people to evacuate the Luhansk region.
On Tuesday, due to a lack of agreement with the Russian side, an evacuation corridor for civilians could not be organized, and this was regretted by Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk for the third day in a row. The day before she had asked Moscow to open humanitarian corridors in Berdyansk and Mariupol. “Your refusal to open these humanitarian corridors will serve as an element in future trials against anyone involved in war crimes,” she warned on Telegram.
Russia’s military presence increased
According to a senior US Defense Department official, Russia has increased its military presence in eastern and southern Ukraine by “eleven battalions” in a week, bringing the total number of battalions in the country to 76, with 12 still mobilized in Mariupol. According to the same official, about 22 battalions are likely to be resupplied and re-equipped in northern Ukraine. These units consist of air defense weapons, armor, tactical vehicles, artillery, helicopters, and military-technical and logistical support elements.
“The enemy continues to transfer weapons and military equipment from the central and eastern regions of the Russian Federation to Ukraine,” the General Staff of the Ukrainian Army said on Tuesday. According to the same source, divisions of Tor anti-aircraft missiles were deployed to the Kharkiv region (northeast), and S-400 and S-300 anti-aircraft systems were stationed in Russia’s Belgorod region near the border with Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin needs results by May 9th
“The Liberation Plan of the People’s Republics [autoproclamées] Donetsk and Luhansk will be implemented,” Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said on Tuesday, in line with the will of the Kremlin. Why start this offensive in these separatist areas now? After failing to overthrow the capital Kyiv, “Vladimir Putin and the Russian Federation must show some victory after the failures it has suffered,” estimates Valéria Faure-Muntian on franceinfo on Tuesday morning, LREM MEP and President of the France-Ukraine Friendship Group at the gathering.
In the face of nearly two months of bitter resistance by Ukrainians, the Russian president wants to make progress leading up to the May 9 military parade marking the Soviet victory over the Nazis in 1945. “There is a sense of urgency because, for political reasons, the Kremlin wants a victory that must be presented quickly to its people, especially to justify the losses,” stresses Vincent Tourret, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, in Le Monde.
“Vladimir Putin is playing everything in this offensive” and “must achieve this success,” analyzed Monday on franceinfo General Jerome Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the magazine National Defense. “It will be an old world war with artillery and shots everywhere (…) It will be very, very violent because the Russian army can no longer retreat there,” predicted General Dominik Trinquand at the beginning of April.
US increases arms sales to Ukraine
In this regard, the United States announced on Monday that the first shipments of its new military aid ($800 million) to Ukraine had just arrived at the country’s borders. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said soldiers stationed on NATO’s eastern flank since the start of the Russian invasion would begin “in the coming days” to train Ukrainian soldiers in the use of M777 howitzers, the latest generation of artillery pieces designed for the the United States decided to hand over to the Ukrainian army for the first time.
Although their handling is not fundamentally different from the artillery with which the Ukrainian army is familiar, these guns use 155mm shells used by NATO countries, while Ukraine does not yet have Russian 152mm shells Manufacturing features. US President Joe Biden will also attend a meeting on Tuesday dedicated to the Russian offensive in Ukraine.