Despite warnings from Moscow, the Finnish government had described a candidacy as “very likely”.
Finland’s parliament begins Wednesday, April 20, to discuss joining NATO to better protect itself against possible Russian aggression, with a candidacy now “very likely”.
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Despite Moscow’s recent warnings of nuclear reinforcements in the Baltics should neighboring Finland or Sweden join the US-led military alliance, Helsinki intends to make a decision quickly. “I think it will be pretty quick. In a few weeks, not a few months, the Nordic country’s young Social Democrat leader Sanna Marin said last week.
A likely vote by summer
The 200 deputies of Eduskunta, the country’s almost 100-year-old parliament, who were divided for a long time before the invasion of Ukraine, are heading for a clear majority for membership in an expected vote by the summer. According to the Finnish media, a hundred of them have already decided to vote for membership, while only 12 are against. The others are waiting for the debates to show their position. Without making a formal recommendation, a new “white paper” tabled by the government to parliamentarians last week stressed that only membership of NATO makes it possible to benefit from the umbrella of its famous Article 5 of collective defence.
Even though it broke with its strict neutrality at the end of the Cold War and when it joined the European Union in 1995, Finland is now only a NATO partner. For the Nordic country, which shares a 1,300-kilometer border with Russia, joining the 30-strong coalition would provide a “significantly greater” deterrent to an attack from its powerful neighbor, according to the white paper. It is “very likely” that Finland is a candidate, Finnish Minister for European Affairs Tytti Tuppurainen admitted on Friday and assured that the decision had not yet been made.
Two-thirds of Finns support membership
“The Finns seem to have made up their minds and there is already a large majority in favor of joining NATO,” she noted. According to polls, almost two-thirds of the 5.5 million Finns are now in favor of membership, almost three times as many as before the war in Ukraine. Moscow is trying to thwart the march of its former grand duchy, which has already received signs of support for possible membership from most members of the alliance.
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Being a member of NATO cannot strengthen their national security. De facto (Finland and Sweden) will be the first line of NATO, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Friday. These countries “need to understand the consequences of such a measure for our bilateral relations and for the European security architecture as a whole,” she said. The Finnish decision is being followed with great attention in Sweden. The Scandinavian country, which has not been at war for two centuries, is also considering joining the alliance but appears to be making its decision dependent on Helsinki’s choice.
Many analysts are expecting Finland and perhaps Sweden to be candidates for the NATO summit in Madrid at the end of June. Unanimity of members is required. If there is a question mark on Viktor Orban’s choice of Hungary for the line more favorable to Russia than other Europeans, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg estimated that there would be no obstacle. Helsinki expects four months to about a year to ratify accession procedures — a sensitive period during which guarantees of military assistance should be formulated in its favour.
Read alsoFinland will make its decision on possible NATO membership “within a few weeks”.
If Finland joins, the land borders between NATO countries and Russia would suddenly double, reaching almost 2600 kilometers. Russian for almost two centuries (1809-1917), Finland shares with its large neighbor a turbulent history marked by heroic resistance during World War II, particularly during the Winter War of 1939-40.
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