Under normal circumstances, this would have ended the prime minister and his term in office. But Johnson has so far declined to step down from office, and with no general election scheduled until 2024, his fate will ultimately be determined by his own Conservative MPs, the only people who can impeach him early.
For now, they seem happy that he remains at Downing Street, although poll after poll shows the public thinks he should resign. Johnson is embroiled in the worst crisis of his tenure after police fined him for breaking Covid-19 laws by attending a 2020 birthday gathering being held in his honor at his office at the height of the lockdown became.
Conservative Party polls aren’t looking too good either, although party sources say Johnson is still more of an electoral advantage than a problem overall. They are aware that this could change if Johnson faces another fine from the police or more details emerge from the so-called “Partygate” scandal.
That means, in the medium term, that Johnson must just keep plowing away and dodging the various pitfalls right in front of him – which his allies say he has done and can continue to do.
The first such trap will occur on Thursday, when MPs will be able to vote on a motion by opposition parties that would refer the prime minister to a parliamentary committee that would investigate his conduct.
Keir Starmer, leader of the main opposition Labor party, said: “We urge Conservative MPs to do the right thing. To respect the sacrifices their constituents have made during the pandemic.”
Johnson, who commands a sizeable parliamentary majority, is expected to survive the vote, but Labor sources are quietly suggesting the motion will be politically toxic for Johnson either way. If Conservative MPs vote against going through with the inquiry, Labor can walk to their seats at the next election and point out that they voted to protect the Prime Minister from a scrutiny.
And just a few weeks later, there will be another test: On May 5, there will be local elections across the country. While Johnson will not be removed from office, the election will be an opportunity for voters to send an angry message straight to Downing Street.
While Conservatives have suffered huge slumps in several polls ahead of the election, observers believe it would take a spectacular defeat for Johnson’s lawmakers to commit political regicide against Johnson. But it’s not out of the question – and those who have seriously considered removing the Prime Minister from office see the summer as the best time to get rid of him, as it would give a new leader enough time to settle in before taking office settling in the job next federal election.
After these elections, the pitfalls are a little harder to predict. Johnson could be fined again at any time for other Downing Street gatherings that broke the laws of his own government. And a senior official’s final report on the Partygate scandal could be so damning that Conservative poll numbers plummet even further.
For now, however, Johnson is staying in his job, doesn’t want to step down and nobody is strong enough to force him. It’s frustrating for those who want him gone, but politics just makes getting rid of Johnson virtually impossible in the near future. Whether that’s a good thing for Johnson and his party is another question entirely – and there are Labor officials who believe Johnson would be preferable to a new, more credible alternative in the next general election.