John Spencer, a retired army officer studying urban warfare for the Madison Policy Forum, said Ukraine’s main goal is to make the war as bloody for Russia as possible, as Putin doesn’t appear to be leaving anytime soon. Giving up secondary cities may become necessary to allow the Ukrainian government to hold out in the capital for as long as possible, he said.
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“In this case, not to lose is to win,” Spencer said. “Ukrainian strategy – do not lose.”
Russia has shelled Kyiv mostly with artillery and other long-range weapons as a 40-mile column of tanks and other combat vehicles is effectively stalled about 15 miles north of the capital and bogged down in logistical setbacks, a senior U.S. Defense Department official told reporters. On Friday, on condition of anonymity, citing ground rules set by the Pentagon.
However, in other parts of the country, Russia’s successes are more significant.
In the northeastern city of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, Russian forces have reached the outskirts after days of shelling neighborhoods with rockets, rockets and other weapons, a senior US defense official said.
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To the south, Putin’s forces have also advanced towards the strategic port city of Mariupol, occupied the small towns of Berdyansk, Melitopol and Kherson, and appear to have aimed further west at Mykolaiv, a city of some 470,000 people. Further success would allow the Russians to look even further west and attack Odessa, a port city of nearly 1 million people, perhaps both by land and by naval forces on ships in the Black Sea.
Ukrainian officials have indicated that, having survived the initial invasion, they intend to launch a counteroffensive against Russian forces. It is more likely to facilitate armed ambushes rather than a major open attack against the outnumbered Russian military, said Douglas London, a retired senior CIA officer and Middle East Institute analyst.
“They will not be able to launch a major counterattack, organize troops and say: “Attack!” It will be an asymmetrical attempt to repel Russian attacks,” London said. “The Russians have a lot of static targets due to their own logistical issues, and it’s just gold for harassing special operations forces operating in the rear. That’s exactly what they do.”
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London predicted that, given Russia’s vast military advantage, Putin would press his advantage and Ukrainian forces would eventually have to adjust again.
“I don’t see him leaving quietly that night,” London said of Putin. “Ukraine will eventually lose cities or reach a point where they cannot resupply them and they will have to move on to a more insurgent or urban underground operation.”
Attacking Russian lines of support has already proven to be an important strategy to reduce Russia’s advantage, said Andriy Zahorodniuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister. The Russian vehicles are spread out across a wide area on multiple fronts, and they’re constantly idling to keep soldiers warm in cold weather, making replenishing diesel fuel a huge challenge, Zagorodniuk said.
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The Ukrainian military has advised civil defense volunteers to ignore armored vehicles and instead attack fuel trucks, which are unarmored and often driven by poorly trained Russian soldiers. A fuel cut turns tanks and rocket launchers into roadblocks and leaves them vulnerable to destruction or capture, said Zahorodniuk, now chairman of the Center for Defense Strategies, a Ukrainian think tank.
Russia’s strength lies in fighting with armored vehicles, said Rob Lee, a Russia military expert and senior fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies. The opportunity for Ukraine, he said, is to deploy small groups with anti-tank weapons to attack vehicles and then withdraw. At least some of these missions are carried out by Ukrainian special forces, about which the Russians have relatively little knowledge since they were recreated in 2014 after Russia attacked and annexed the Crimean peninsula.
Ukraine’s focus on cutting off fuel supplies has already had an external impact on the battlefield. While Russian hardware remains in place, Ukrainian forces attacked, leaving smoldering debris and leaving Russian soldiers with a grim choice: stay in their vehicle, where they are vulnerable to a possible missile strike, or try to leave on foot and face the possibility of death. shot or taken prisoner. Videos posted to social media and confirmed by The Washington Post show some Russian vehicles were likely abandoned.
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Rep. Jason Crowe (D-Colorado), an Army veteran who fought in Afghanistan and Iraq, visited Ukraine in recent weeks. The fact that its military remains decentralized—one of the shortcomings preventing Ukraine from joining NATO—may be one of its best assets in this war, he said in an interview.
“Scattered pockets of resistance and you see battalion-level units fighting independently, which…maybe a blessing in disguise,” Crowe said. “It actually helps them now because… they don’t rely on centralized command and control systems.
“Now they have a unique opportunity to quickly deplete Russian forces because they are so confused.”
Spencer, an expert on urban warfare, said that inside cities, Ukrainians are increasingly resorting to “defense in depth,” making invading Russian forces extremely difficult to maneuver and survive. Bridges have been blown up, roads piled up with tires and barricades, citizens armed with rifles, Molotov cocktails and other weapons. He said he wasn’t convinced Russia had the strength to stop Ukrainians in the capital from getting more weapons.
History is full of examples of relatively few militants digging into a city with its many alleyways, rooftops and tunnels and holding off a major attack for long periods, Spencer said. He referred to the Battle of Mosul, in which Islamic State fighters held out for nine months starting in the fall of 2016, when Iraqi forces, backed by US air power, recaptured the major city block by block.