With winter comes the snow hiking season. In politics, a “walk in the snow” means major reflections on the future of a political career. This alludes to Pierre Trudeau, who decided to resign on February 29, 1984, after a walk on a stormy evening.
Posted at 6:00 am
Of course, it’s too early to believe Justin Trudeau will be walking in the snow this winter. After all, the last federal election was only 14 months and the Liberals have a deal with the NDP, which is expected to vote with the government until 2025.
Especially since the Prime Minister seems to be sitting well in the saddle. His recent testimony before Judge Paul Rouleau on the advisability of resorting to the Emergency Measures Act seems to have reassured those who thought Justin Trudeau didn’t want to stay prime minister for very long.
In fact, Mr Trudeau seems keen to run against new Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in the next election, although recent polls put him at the top and he will be in power for 10 years by 2025, which is life in Canada is cycle of a government.
So this is not a sign that he might cede power, which his ministers and the opposition parties are watching. It’s the notion that he might not “take a walk in the snow.”
His situation is somewhat similar to that of Brian Mulroney at the end of his second term in power after almost nine years. Despite the polls, he was convinced he could beat the liberal leader Jean Chretien, whom he did not like very much.
It wasn’t until he reached the fifth year of his second term that he realized he wouldn’t be able to turn the tide. On February 24, 1993, he finally announced his departure.
So Mr. Trudeau has time. He will have plenty of time to see and hope for a change in public opinion. But his decision to wait a little longer before deciding on his future could provoke more “snowwalks”.
There are prominent members of his cabinet who see opportunities now that may not be there in two or three years.
So it is an open secret that Deputy Prime Minister and Treasury Secretary Chrystia Freeland wants to succeed Mr Trudeau.
But everything also indicates that she could look elsewhere if he decides to take on a new mandate. She is said to be interested in the post of NATO Secretary General.
Another minister with ambitions is that of Innovation, Science and Industry, François-Philippe Champagne, who is reportedly considering a liberal leadership campaign. Let’s ask the question: In which capital?
Apparently he wants to succeed Mr. Trudeau. But an unwritten rule more than a century old will work against him, which is to alternate between a French-speaking and an English-speaking chef. The last time an exception was made to this rule was in 1880, when Edward Blake succeeded Alexander Mackenzie.
The same rule would work against Secretary of State Mélanie Joly if she decided to run for leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada (PLC).
Meanwhile, the name of François-Philippe Champagne is appearing more and more frequently in the internal discussions of the Liberal Party of Quebec. He’s already said he’s not interested, but they’ve resumed with a vengeance since potential candidates like Pierre Moreau shut the door.
Mr. Champagne certainly has the desired profile. A francophonist who hails from a region called the Mauricie and has spent much of his time traveling around Quebec. With a well developed economic profile. And at 52, he’s in his prime.
One thing is for sure, none of the potential candidates have a CV that comes close to that of François-Philippe Champagne.
Obviously, rebuilding the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) will require a lot of energy from its new leader. That’s good, Mr. Champagne has plenty left. It’s not for nothing that he’s nicknamed the “Energizer Bunny”.
Apparently, the PLQ has long shopped with the Liberal Party of Canada to find a leader. Last time it was Jean Lesage. But if the PLQ were able to accept a federal conservative like Jean Charest, Mr Champagne shouldn’t cause too much trouble.
One thing is certain, with the rate at which exits are progressing in the race for the PLQ leadership, the pressure on Mr Champagne will only increase in the coming weeks. That doesn’t guarantee he’ll want to take the plunge, but what is certain is that many in the PLQ already see him as a front-runner.