The Philadelphia Eagles are 11-1 after defeating the Tennessee Titans.
Not perfect. But pretty good. As a rule, you only accept one loss in 12 games.
For the Eagles to advance to 12-1, they need an away win against the New York Giants. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Birds started their Week 14 matchup as 6.5-point favorites.
It has to be argued that the Giants are getting too many points. They’re 7-4-1 after Sunday’s tie with the Washington Commanders. They are also tied (with the Cincinnati Bengals) for THE best record against the spread this season at 9-3.
Only two teams have higher coverage than underdogs this season; the Bengals (2-0) and the Baltimore Ravens (1-0-1). The Giants are 7-1 against the spread and 5-2-1 straight if they weren’t favored.
This data supports the notion that Brian Daboll and his coaching staff are keeping the Giants playing their best football in years. Having seen New York a number of times this season, they’re not really a team to fear. But they usually do a good job of not hitting themselves, which is a big improvement over the way they’ve played for a long time.
Daniel Jones was no longer the sales machine he used to be. He’s only thrown two picks in his last nine starts. He also has only two lost fumbles in this stretch. Jones was supported not only by the Giants’ coaching staff, but also by Saquon Barkley, who is the heart of their offense.
On the other hand, Barkley’s efficiency has been slipping lately. Check out these splits:
- First five games: 5.5 yards per carry, 7.9 yards per reception
- Last seven games: 3.6 yards per carry, 4.5 yards per reception
After a game in which they took out Derrick Henry, the Eagles should feel good about their chances of containing Barkley.
The Eagles should also be comfortable with their starting quarterback, who is arguably the leading candidate for NFL MVP. Jalen Hurts is on fire right now.
Of course, Hurts had the worst game of his career last season against the Giants. His very first start at MetLife Stadium saw him completing just 45.2% of his passes for 124 yards (4.0 average), 0 TD, 3 INT and a 17.5 passer rating. Hurts was significantly better in his second game against the G-Men, which took place in Philly.
Hurts has also improved overall since last year. And he now has AJ Brown to work with, which is a big deal.
The Eagles should be able to win this game. The Giants probably aren’t all that good, as their record shows. They rank 16th in point difference (at -7 with more points surrendered than scored) and 21st in DVOA.
But again, they were good as underdogs and league games can be closer than you would expect. This is reminiscent of the Eagles’ only loss this season.
What are you saying?