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RIGA, Latvia — A drone strike attributed to Ukraine rocked an airfield in Russia on Tuesday, once again demonstrating Ukraine’s ability to advance hundreds of kilometers inside Russia into Russian territory, a day after attacking two other air bases.
The attacks have exposed major weaknesses in Russia’s air defenses and sent a signal to Moscow that its strategic assets far from the active combat zone are not off limits to the emboldened Ukrainian military.
Officials in the Russian city of Kursk, north of Ukraine, said Tuesday’s drone strike set fire to an oil tank at an airfield.
The two airfields attacked by drones on Monday – the Engels-2 base in the Saratov region and the Dyagilevo base in Ryazan, a few hours’ drive from Moscow – are home to jet bombers capable of carrying conventional missiles designed to target Ukrainian infrastructure but these can also carry nuclear weapons and normally serve as an important part of Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrent.
Ukraine has not officially claimed responsibility for the attacks and has deliberately cryptically portrayed its role in several explosions at strategically important Russian military sites in recent months.
But a senior Ukrainian official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the delicate operation, told the Washington Post Tuesday that all three attacks were carried out by Ukrainian drones.
“These were Ukrainian drones – very successful, very effective,” the official said of the strikes. The official added that the Russians “have sown the seeds of wrath and will reap the hurricane.”
Russia’s Defense Ministry blamed Kyiv for Monday’s attacks but said the damage done was minimal.
Ukrainian drones have hit two air bases deep in Russia in a brazen attack
Britain’s Defense Ministry said on Tuesday: “If Russia characterizes the incidents as premeditated attacks, it will likely view them as some of the most strategically significant failures in force protection since its invasion of Ukraine.”
It is not clear how Ukrainian forces carried out the attack, what drones were used and whether they were launched from Ukrainian territory or from inside Russia with the help of special forces closer to the targets. Military experts closely monitoring Russian activities were also puzzled by the drones’ success in evading Russian air defenses.
“Russia is proud to be ready for a NATO attack against the country as it has many air forces and precision-guided munitions. So if that’s the case, how did that happen?” asked Samuel Bendett, a military analyst with Virginia-based research group CNA, in an interview.
“Perhaps this points to some of the larger problems within Russian air defenses; maybe they’re not as safe and modern as you think,” added Bendett. “Whatever air defenses are in Russia probably didn’t anticipate that such an attack could be possible.”
The Russian military said Ukraine had deployed a “Soviet-era” unmanned aerial vehicle. Alexander Kots, a prominent military correspondent for the pro-Kremlin newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda, said Engels airfield was hit by a Soviet Tu-141 Strizh drone using technology dating back to the 1970s.
“If Russian radar and air defenses could not defeat a Tu-141 hundreds of kilometers from hitting its main air base for its strategic bombers in a wartime environment, that does not bode well for its ability to stop a massed cruise missile attack.” , said Rob Lee, a Russian military expert and senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, in a tweet.
Ukraine still has some Tu-141s in stock and could have improved its capabilities for a one-way mission, Bendett said.
But the strikes also drew attention to Ukraine’s own drone program and recent efforts to develop its own long-range combat UAVs.
Ukraine’s state-owned arms manufacturer Ukroboronprom announced last month that it was testing a new strike drone with a range of up to 1000 km (621 miles) and a payload of 75 kg (165 pounds). “The next phase of UAV testing – by order of the Chief of the General Staff, we are preparing for flight tests under the action of electronic warfare,” the company said in a Facebook post on Nov. 24.
There’s no evidence a new drone was used in the attacks, but Bendett says it may have been something more advanced than a Soviet-era drone.
“The Russians want to minimize the achievements of the Ukrainian defense and that is why they say they just reused an old junk or the blueprint. But maybe that was something different, something more sophisticated,” he said.
If Ukraine has indeed developed the capability to strike that far inside Russia, it will be of deep concern to Russians, Western officials said on Tuesday. The attack on the Engels base is of particular importance, among other things, because it could force Russia to redistribute the long-range bombers stationed there to other locations.
“It certainly makes Russians less confident that somewhere is safe. Psychologically it’s a blow,” said a Western official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly alluded to his country’s vast nuclear arsenal and has veiled threats that he is ready to take extreme measures to prevent Western involvement in the war or in retaliation if Ukraine attacks critical infrastructure in Russia. The vulnerability of strategic locations to relatively simple drone technology can change the way Western leaders perceive these threats.
Aside from the symbolism of the airfield attacks associated with Russia’s nuclear deterrent, the attacks could have immediate implications for Moscow’s battlefield strategy in Ukraine.
“In practice, this is a serious and imminent problem for the Russian Defense Ministry,” Ruslan Leviev, an analyst with the Conflict Intelligence Team, said in a daily video briefing. “Ideally, they would have to install more air defense systems, but the problem that both Russia and Ukraine face is that they only have a limited number of them.”
Leviev recalled reports that Moscow had moved some of its defense systems, previously shipped to Syria, to cover forces on Russia’s nearly thousand-mile frontline.
“Even for remote airfields, which Russia doesn’t have one or two of, there are simply no additional defense systems and they just remain unprotected,” Leviev said. “So you either leave your bases vulnerable or you move some of the air defense systems off the front line, and both options are bad.”
Hours after Monday’s attacks, Moscow launched an eighth wave of massive rocket attacks on Ukraine, apparently aimed at depriving the country of heating and electricity amid bitterly cold weather.
She fled by boat from the Russian crew. Minutes later she was shot.
Foreign Minister Antony Blinken told reporters in Washington on Tuesday that Ukrainian civilians are regularly attacked by Russian forces, as is Ukraine’s power grid. Asked if he thinks Ukrainian attacks on Russia are morally justified, Blinken said the United States “neither encouraged nor enabled” Kyiv to launch attacks on Russian territory.
State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters: “We have not provided arms to Ukraine for use inside Russia. We have made it very clear that these are defensive stocks.” He continued, “We are not allowing Ukraine to strike beyond its borders. We do not encourage Ukraine to strike beyond its borders.”
When asked at the same press conference whether the United States was working to prevent Ukraine from developing its own clout within Russia, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said, “No. Absolutely not.”
Missy Ryan and Karen DeYoung in Washington and Liz Sly in London contributed to this report.
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