75 years after its independence, India is on the way to becoming the most populous country on earth, belongs to the club of nuclear powers and ranks fifth in the world economy, ahead of the former colonial power Great Britain.
• Also read: Biden and British Prince William discuss the climate in Boston
• Also read: Water is a powerful marker of climate change
• Also read: India: Successful launch of the first private space rocket
India is therefore demanding a permanent seat on the UN Security Council alongside the USA, China, Russia, Great Britain and France. However, according to analysts, New Delhi must overcome many challenges before it can make an impact on the world diplomatic scene.
A democracy of 1.4 billion people at the crossroads of multiple geopolitical issues, India is a potential counterweight to an increasingly autocratic China under Xi Jinping.
It is the only country to be a member of both the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, led by Moscow and Beijing, and QUAD, an initiative led by the United States with Japan and Australia to expand China’s influence in Asia- to balance the Pacific Rim.
India also co-founded the group of emerging economies known as “BRICS”, which brought together Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa to counter the influence of international governance structures dominated by the United States and India.
For decades, India remained diplomatically on the fringes, content with a role within the Non-Aligned Movement, which steered clear of the two Cold War superpowers while maintaining close ties with Moscow, which remains its main arms supplier.
In the changing strategic landscape of the 21st century, “India has an increasing ambition to be present and to listen, to influence and to lead,” Observer President Samir Saran told the AFP Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based company Panzer Foundation.
Coal and Russia
The question, however, is whether India is “ready to take on the responsibility of such an important player”. The country has a mixed record on the international stage.
India, the world’s second-biggest coal consumer and third-biggest emitter of carbon, has been blamed along with China for failing to pledge to get off coal at last year’s COP26 summit.
Three months after Vladimir Putin’s visit to Delhi, who hailed India as “a great power, a friendly nation and a long-standing friend,” his forces invaded Ukraine.
For months, New Delhi refused to impose sanctions on Moscow and increased its purchases of Russian crude oil six-fold, pushing its bilateral trade to a record high, according to official figures.
“Countries like the United States, some countries in Europe and other countries in Asia-Pacific see India as a geopolitical counterweight to China, an economic alternative or a democratic opposite,” recalls Tanvi Madan.
But “the big question,” she adds, is whether India will be able to “capture this opportunity in a timely manner.”
Investors are pulling out of China, and international companies struggling with mounting economic and regulatory difficulties are trying to relocate.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting economic activity in India at 6.8% this year, more than double that of China, and the world’s fastest pace of growth in 2023.
“We continue to affirm India”
But Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand are proving more attractive than India, where despite a large domestic market where English is widely spoken, balance a complex bureaucracy and tax system, a congested legal system and endemic corruption.
India and China, locked in border, trade and technology disputes, have frozen ties since a deadly military clash at the border in 2020.
Since then, President Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have not met, apart from an “exchange of courtesies” at the last G20 summit in Indonesia.
New Delhi strengthens its military, including its border defenses and defense industry, with nuclear submarines and a first Indian-made aircraft carrier.
Its low-cost space program has made it the fourth country to send an orbiter to Mars, and it is planning a manned mission to orbit.
But the country lags far behind China, which has long dominated all these areas.
India has “probably never been better off,” argues former Indian diplomat Navdeep Suri, but its status as a “world power rests on economic and military strength. We’re still a long way from that.”
For Samir Saran, India is becoming “a bigger and more influential voice and player” in pursuing its own interests and values.
“It will not be subject to any agendas other than yours,” he emphasizes, “we will be louder, more present, we will affirm India more”.