President Blitzkrieg’s approach to the invasion of Blitzkrieg Ukraine has seen Russian troops seize vital strategic centers and spread across the country at lightning speed. But what can happen next? MARK ALMOND, director of the Institute for Crisis Research, Oxford, is considering options.
1. SUDDEN WITHDRAWAL
Vladimir Putin likes to surprise his opponents. Given the speed and scale of the Russian invasion, what could be more shocking than the sudden cessation of hostilities and the withdrawal of troops?
If Putin decides that his ruthless punitive action has achieved his main goals of forcing Ukraine to bow to his demands and humiliate NATOthen his army can simply organize a “triumphant” march home.
Such a surprising retreat could halt the worst of Western economic sanctions – and allow Putin to present himself as a “peacemaker.”
Probability: Vain hope.
Russian President Vladimir Putin talks about allowing a special military operation in Ukraine’s Donbass region during a special televised address today
2. UKRAINE IN LOCATION
The effectiveness of the Russian bombing and the speed of its tank advance suggest that this war will end in a few days. Indeed, US sources fear that Kiev may fall as early as Sunday.
The Russian army and FSB officers – the new KGB – may soon spread across the country to pursue those who spoke out against Russia’s ambitions before the invasion.
And while only a small percentage of Ukrainians may be willing to cooperate with a massive military presence, a puppet government may be installed in Kiev.
Meanwhile, millions of Ukrainians will be allowed to flee the EU – the easiest way to rid the country of potential rebels.
Probability: The most likely result.
An explosion illuminates the night sky over Kiev, Ukraine, in the early hours of Thursday as Russia invades
3. UKRAINE RETURNS FIGHT
Russia’s early triumphs may turn out to be illusory. In 1941, the Nazis quickly took over Ukraine, but were soon undermined by massive guerrilla resistance.
The proliferation of firearms and anti-tank weapons by the Ukrainian government could mean that Russian troops will increasingly be ambushed deep in the occupied territories.
And significant Russian casualties could undermine the acceptance of the war at home.
Russian AP burns down near Hlukhov in Sumy region, Ukraine today, when Russian troops enter the country
The sight of bags of corpses returned during the Afghan war in the 1980s has sparked widespread discontent and helped undermine the stability of the Soviet Union, even though Russian forces now have mobile crematoria.
Putin may have started this war at a time of his own choosing, but ending it may be more problematic.
Probability: high. Kiev distributes weapons to any citizen who requests one.
4. RUSSIA IS GOING BEYOND UKRAINE
If Putin decides he is on the move, his army could move to weak, neutral former Soviet states bordering Russia (Moldova, Georgia and Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan).
Last month, Russian airborne troops ran a dry run to Ukraine as they flew to Kazakhstan to “stabilize” it after the riots over rising energy prices.
This successful operation set a precedent.
The Kremlin can accept the view that NATO will not prevent Russia’s military takeover of these defenseless states.
Russian peacekeepers from Collective Security Treaty Organization leave Russian military plane after withdrawing troops from Kazakhstan last month
In fact, all indications are that Western leaders will limit their revenge to imposing sanctions, while Russian aggression is limited to former Soviet republics outside NATO.
Pretty soon, Putin could create a huge new Russian empire, while the West would virtually withdraw to the EU’s borders. This would lead to a dangerous new Cold War.
And let’s not forget China.
Chinese President Xi Jinping may see Moscow’s rapid recovery from former Soviet territory as an incentive to invade Taiwan. At the very least, China’s navy and air force may try to stifle trade on the island.
Probability: Given Putin’s imperial ambitions, a real possibility remains.
5. NUCLEAR COLLISION WITH THE WEST
During the Cold War, Washington and Moscow agreed that this would be MAD, a suicidal path to mutually guaranteed destruction.
But Putin openly threatened to use nuclear weapons in his speech, announcing the invasion of Ukraine yesterday morning.
What if he is encouraged enough by the disintegration of Ukraine’s trained and equipped Western army to confront those Eastern European NATO members he considers a “soft target”?
Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launch during training launch as part of Grom 2022 Strategic Deterrence Force exercise at an unspecified location in Russia this month
The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, for example.
This could trigger Article 5 of NATO, which requires all members of the alliance to go to the aid of a member state that is under attack.
Under such circumstances, Putin could move from nuclear extortion to the deployment of Iskander missiles against his NATO neighbors.
Even this horrific scenario cannot be ruled out now.
Probability: Thin, but cannot be completely ruled out.