How Ukraine Strikes Russia Again

Kyiv continues to challenge Russia: At dawn, a drone caused the explosion of a large fuel tank at a base near Kursk, a city 200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Small hit compared to the enemy’s massive waves on their cities, but still relevant moves.

Actions

The attack follows two deep raids on Engels-2 and Ryazan military airports, hundreds of kilometers from the Ukrainian border, that damaged strategic bombers. Four points:

1) The thesis seems to prevail that the Monday action was launched and modernized with a “local” drone from the 1970s: the Tu 141 (action range a thousand kilometers) or the Tu 143 and not with a new medium. They actually turned it into a cruise missile.

2) The experts point out that in March a similar bomb fell in Croatia, an old weapon that technicians have adapted to the upcoming needs.

3) It should not be forgotten that Ukraine has a long experience in building missile systems. Stories have surfaced in the past that components may also get to North Korea through standard smuggling.
4) Resistance affirms flexibility and agility: Kyiv sources quoted by The New York Times have revealed that in at least one instance the blitz was made possible by the support of special forces leading the fire. As for the results, they don’t seem to have been big (a few planes out of service) for the sortie they serve as a morale test, and a test that keeps the army on the ropes. Everyone has to reckon with new blows.

5) Strong controversy in Moscow, where observers again accuse the commandos that the countermeasures are not sufficient.

The Nordic

Two sides are moving in Europe even before the invasion. Some countries – Italy, France, Germany – underestimated the possible threat from Russia for interest and economic reasons. The position of the northern states is different, concerned for historical and geographical reasons: they were not surprised when Putin’s tanks breached the borders. And when the war started, they responded by giving intense support to those who were attacked. Now some of those governments want to do more. In November, representatives of Finland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark met in Helsinki to set up a Nordic pact aimed at coordinating the purchase and supply of arms to Zelenskyy, expanding aid and ensuring security. The quartet has already provided a total of 2 billion euros in the past few months, and more will follow.

sabotage

With a series of acts of sabotage, the Russians managed to destroy around 210,000 tons of artillery ammunition stored in depots in Ukraine. The strikes began in 2014 and continued in subsequent years. An article in Forbes and the reports of the British institute Rusi confirmed it. A detail of the secret battle that emerged a few months ago, now enriched with details. GRU intelligence specifically targeted stockpiles of 152mm shells and rockets, posing serious problems for the defenders, who had to confront the advance with minimal equipment. Similar incidents have been reported from Bulgaria and the Czech Republic where fraud is suspected.

NATO went to the rescue by buying 152 ammunition where it could (e.g. in Poland and other states that have Soviet material), and then initiated the transition by supplying its own guns, the 105 – and use 155mm shots. A program that presented logistical problems and, in the long run, affected western stocks. So much so that the Pentagon has just announced the launch of a plan to triple production over the next three years: the current rate of 14-15,000 155 rounds per month needs to increase to 20,000 in the spring and 40,000 by 2025. A significant roadmap, such as a survey of American sentiment: a good majority still approve of massive deliveries, but a significant portion at the same time are hoping for pressure from the White House on Kyiv to come to a negotiation.

December 6, 2022 (change December 6, 2022 | 19:33)