“Monse” is how we say stupid or stupid in Peru. But it has a special added tone of an irrelevant action with no prospect of success. That was former President Pedro Castillo’s announcement this Wednesday that Congress would be shut down. He received no support, his ministers resigned one after the other, his lawyer too, we don’t know exactly when his prime minister came. It did not control state television, the police, or the armed forces. He eventually tried to escape and was taken away by the same police officers who were driving his vehicle to a detention center.
Castillo’s announcement reminded us Peruvians of Fujimori’s April 5, 1992 self-coup. Certainly, one of the reasons why he was so isolated was that it was very difficult for Peruvians to regain democracy, and we had to wait until 2000 for Fujimori’s re-again -was re-elected to achieve it.
From the beginning of his government, Castillo, elected on a pro-left platform, faced frontal and anti-democratic opposition from those who lost the elections from the right. They alleged fraud and demanded that he be evicted before he was sworn in. They managed to control Congress and from then on did not stop attacking it, while themselves approving populist laws and negotiating interests. According to opinion polls, only 10% of Peruvians currently support Congress.
Opposition from Congress, the mainstream media and the white business elite meant that Castillo’s situation was never easy. But Castillo had a lousy government. With strong corruption allegations against those around him and even himself, he decided to confront them in order to obstruct justice rather than act transparently and support open investigations, leading to growing suspicions about his involvement in charges such as illegal enrichment. The related references piled up between November 2021 and January 2022, and when Castillo decided to replace Prime Minister Mirtha Vásquez and Minister Avelino Guillén, a symbol of the fight against corruption, I, who had served as Economy Minister, decided to resign as well. .
Castillo also left behind the big promises of sweeping change he made during the campaign. Our proposal for a tax reform similar to that recently passed in Colombia did not receive support and was rejected by Congress. The so-called “Second Agrarian Reform” failed amidst a shortage and shortage of fertilizers that has consistently thwarted government responses. We have left gas metering on the government’s agenda. After a very successful vaccination, when it was a great opportunity for health care reform aimed at universal access based on primary care, that ministry was traded for a few votes in Congress. Social conflicts, illegal logging, insecurity among citizens were not confronted with a strategy. In education, which needs a fresh start after the pandemic, clientelism has been prioritized with groups of teachers close to the President.
The Castillo government was characterized by such high ministerial rotation, negotiating positions by vote, and so little capacity to promote efficiency that public administration was very poor. In recent months, however, he had managed to regain his popularity, walking around the regions and cities of Peru on the basis of an identity campaign with the message that he was like them, the always excluded and therefore those who always dominated Peru not rule it. He managed to increase his popularity by six points to over 30 percent, which is no small compared to previous governments after 15 months in office.
With those bases, he faced a new job posting motion in Congress. As part of this campaign, a new offensive of corruption allegations against him has come to light in recent days. Even so, there was no certainty that it would be vacated, and several analysts indicated that Congress would not get the 87 votes (two-thirds of the total number of congressmen) to make it happen. Under the circumstances, on the same day that this vote was to take place, Castillo delivered his message to the nation about what can only be viewed as an attempted self-coup. Not shot in the feet: He shot himself – politically – in the chest. Today it is actually cleared and stopped.
Come? Vice-President Dina Boluarte has taken power as required by the constitution. She is the first female president in Peru’s history, which despite the circumstances is a step forward in itself. The constitution provides that she is to govern until July 28, 2026. But the situation is not easy; Castillo had 30 percent popular support despite fierce polls against him. Recent opinion polls show that given Castillo’s departure, less than 5% of citizens support a Boluarte presidency and more than 85% want snap elections, which are also included in the Election of a new Congress. The crisis is so great that it seems essential for a stable government to consult the citizenry again.
The problem is that this option requires constitutional reform, approved by Congress itself by 87 votes twice, or approved by a simple majority in Congress and put to a referendum. It is doubtful that the current Congress will want to leave early, much less under the current rule that prevents congressmen from being re-elected. The Castillo government is over, but not the government crisis Peru is going through.
Peter Franke He is an economist and was the first secretary of commerce in the Castillo government.