The prospect of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine is a key factor behind Finland’s debate over whether to join NATO, the country’s foreign minister said.
Pekka Haavisto has had a busy few weeks. As Finnish foreign minister, Haavisto, 64, could soon oversee the biggest political transformation the country has seen since joining the EU nearly three decades ago. “Finland is currently making its decisions. And among those possibilities, NATO membership is one,” Haavisto said in an interview with the Guardian on Thursday.
Yesterday, the Finnish Parliament started its much-anticipated debate on the possibility of submitting a bid for NATO membership. Recent polls have shown a dramatic reversal in public opinion in Finland, with a majority now in favor of joining NATO following the invasion of Ukraine.
“Our security environment changed dramatically after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24,” said the veteran Green Party politician.
Haavisto listed the conclusions that Finland has drawn about its big neighbor and that have led to the political debates in his country. Moscow has shown its willingness to take increasing risks in its military operations and demonstrated its ability to quickly mobilize more than 100,000 troops against a neighboring country without conducting a general mobilization.
“Russia’s behavior is more unpredictable and willing to take higher risks than before. If we look at Georgia in 2008 or Crimea in 2014, we could say that Russia took calculated risks in these cases,” the minister said, referring to the war in Georgia and the annexation of Crimea.
“What is different now is that we see that Russia’s original purpose in attacking Ukraine was to change the regime in a country of 40 million people. This is a high-risk operation for Russia, but Russia has shown it is willing to take those risks.”
Haavisto said he was also deeply troubled by reports that Russia may use nuclear weapons in Ukraine while its military continues to fight.
“For Russia’s neighbors, the country’s loose talk about the use of unconventional weapons, including tactical nuclear weapons and chemicals, is very uncomfortable.
“This is a really worrying issue for us. This has sparked talks in Finland about our own security position in Europe.”
Sweden and Finland are considering NATO membership
Western intelligence officials have begun publicly warning that the Kremlin may turn to tactical or other limited nuclear weapons from its arsenal if its invasion of Ukraine continues to falter. On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that these fears were also shared by some top Russian officials and senior managers of state-owned companies.
Russia, which has previously denied planning a military operation against Ukraine, has pledged to avoid nuclear war. On Wednesday, however, Moscow tested its Sarmat ICBM, a new addition to its nuclear arsenal that President Vladimir Putin said would give Moscow’s enemies “something to think about.”
Haavisto said that for the first time in his long political career, Finns were taking the “nuclear” issue “on the street”.
“A typical question I get now from people on the street or in the shops, which I haven’t had in my whole political life, is what Finland will do if it is threatened by nuclear or chemical weapons. As a politician, you have to have an answer to that,” he said.
That Finland, a country that has traditionally maintained dialogue with the Kremlin, openly raised the possibility of Russian nuclear weapons use shows how strongly the West perceives the country as a threat following its invasion of Ukraine.
The popular president of the Nordic state Sauli Niinistö – often dubbed the “Putin whisperer” due to his direct connection to the Kremlin – has been involved in lengthy talks to convince the Russian president not to invade Ukraine.
Haavisto shrugged that despite Finnish efforts, it was “a great disappointment that Russia chose the military path in Ukraine.”
The minister said Finland had kept its diplomatic channels open with Russia during the war, and he cited Niinistö’s call to Putin on March 10 as one of his country’s ways of bringing Putin to the negotiating table.
Finland is expected to make a decision on whether to apply for NATO membership in the next few weeks, and it will take between four and 12 months for the alliance’s 30 members to officially admit the country.
“During this time we are prepared for everything possible [Russian] Disruptions, cyber attacks, hybrid attacks and so on. It’s just something to be prepared for,” Haavisto said.
On Wednesday, much of the discussion in Helsinki’s parliament centered on the changes the country will see when it becomes part of the defense bloc given Finland’s 830-mile shared border with Russia.
“I think the basic idea of NATO is this common and shared security, which activates in times of crisis, in times of conflict you get help from the other members,” Haavisto said, adding that Finland intends to maintain conscription and its reserve of 280,000 Soldiers.
“But in peacetime, I don’t see much change in our defenses… Russia is and will remain our neighbor. We have always valued a peaceful border, we want it to stay that way.”