An onslaught of howitzers, artillery shells and drones is heading towards Ukraine in a new $800 million package announced by President Biden on Thursday. The Pentagon says Ukraine now has more operational tanks on the ground than Russia, thanks to supplies from countries like the Czech Republic.
The big picture: With a potentially crucial battle currently underway in the eastern Donbass region, the urgency to bring arms to the front lines increases and concerns about provoking Vladimir Putin are fading — at least in Washington.
- Biden vowed to keep sending guns “non-stop” and told Americans to be proud that US arms and intelligence are helping Ukraine “fight back Putin’s ferocity.”
In contrast, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is under pressure from Kyiv, EU allies and his own government for refusing to provide certain heavy weapons such as tanks or other military vehicles.
- Scholz defended his cautious approach in the Bundestag this week, arguing that Germany cannot “do it alone” and must consider its own defense needs and the risk of escalation beyond Ukraine’s borders.
There is also a growing debate about what a realistic outcome in Donbass might look like.
- A European official informed reporters on Tuesday that according to the latest estimates, Russia can take the rest of Luhansk and “a bit” of Donetsk – the two provinces that make up the Donbass region – as well as a very narrow land corridor to Crimea.
- At that point, within four to six months, there will be a stalemate and the potential for more serious negotiations, the official predicted.
- However, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told parliament this week that he sees no path to a diplomatic solution with Putin and therefore “we must do everything we can to ensure that he fails”.
Some experts argue With enough Western support, Ukraine could indeed defeat Russia, which the Pentagon says has lost 25% of its combat capability in eight weeks of war.
- “If we continue on this path and accelerate deliveries with broader European production and contribution, Russia will clearly lose in a few weeks,” Eliot Cohen of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies tweeted on Thursday. “Time to double down and aim for Ukrainian victory.”
- Analysis by the European Council of Foreign Relations claims that Ukraine could gain the upper hand if NATO countries commit to a Ukraine lend-lease program — coupled with intensive training of Ukrainian troops on advanced systems like F-15s -fighter planes.
- If the war drags on, Russia will struggle with dwindling stockpiles, and sanctions could affect future production of some weapon systems.
- Yes but: It’s not entirely clear what a military victory for Ukraine would look like, as outright surrender to Putin seems unlikely.
Putin at a TV session Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Thursday ordered plans to scrap plans to raid the huge Mariupol steel plant where Ukrainian troops and hundreds of civilians are waiting and lock it down instead.
- Putin effectively claimed control of the key port city, but he has dismissed Ukrainian calls for a humanitarian corridor to let troops and civilians out.
- Maj. Serhiy Volyna, commander of Ukraine’s 36th Separate Naval Brigade defending the plant, has refused to surrender but said on Wednesday: “We are probably facing our last days, if not hours.”
go deeper: Satellite images show a mass grave in a Ukrainian town near Mariupol