UKRAINE – A measure that could have serious consequences. Although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been asking NATO for an airspace exclusion since the beginning of the conflict, Vladimir Putin stressed this Saturday, March 5, that Russia will consider any country that tries to impose it on Ukraine as an ally.
“We hear that it is necessary to establish a no-fly zone over the territory of Ukraine. But it is impossible to do this from the territory of Ukraine, it can only be done from the territory of neighboring countries,” the President of Russia said. Any measures in this direction will be considered by Moscow “as participation in an armed conflict of any country”, the territory of which will be used to “create a threat to our military,” he added.
A warning that comes as NATO is very reserved on the issue: the allies again rejected this request from Kyiv on Friday. “The issue was raised and the Allies agreed that we should not have NATO aircraft operating in Ukrainian airspace or NATO troops on the ground,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg replied.
But what is air exclusion?
As the name implies, the establishment of a no-fly zone should allow air flights to be banned over the area. So, a flight over Ukraine. As Franceinfo reminds us, this measure is sanctioned by Article 42 of the UN Charter.
This text explains that if the initial measures taken to maintain or restore international peace and security prove “inadequate”, “demonstrations, blockade measures and other operations carried out by air, navy or members of the United Nations”, may be cancelled. undertaken.
In this case, in order to exclude air, aircraft flying over the relevant territory must present their credentials and request permission from the institution that established the blocking. In the event of a flyby, despite the failure, the aircraft will be considered the enemy and may be shot down.
This type of exclusion has already been applied several times in the past. Thus, during the first Gulf War in 1991, the United States and its coalition partners established two no-fly zones in Iraq to prevent Saddam Hussein’s attacks on the country’s Kurdish and Shia populations. In 1993, a UN resolution authorized the application of an air ban in Bosnia. In 2011, the UN Security Council also passed a resolution establishing a no-fly zone over Libya.
Why does NATO refuse to implement this measure?
So why not implement this system again? Because of the fear of military escalation and because Russia is threatening nuclear war.
“The fundamental difference is that we risk a nuclear war with Russia if we get into a real confrontation between its forces and those of NATO. This has not been the case in past operations,” explains Mathieu Bouleg, a researcher specializing in Eurasia at Chatham House, a London-based think tank quoted by L’Express.
“Introducing a no-fly zone on Ukrainian territory would mean shooting down Russian planes flying over it,” points out (still with L’Express) General Dominique Trinquan, a military expert and former head of the French mission to the UN. This would lead de facto to direct clashes between NATO and Russia and would inevitably lead to an escalation of the conflict.” “We can end up with total war in Europe,” Jens Stoltenberg sums up.
At the Élysée, we also raise the question of the measure’s ineffectiveness. “A no-fly zone is a perfectly legitimate request from the Ukrainians, but it is very difficult to satisfy,” a senior French diplomat says. This will require significant resources and will not interfere with the ground war.”
“All those people who will die from today will also die because of you”
Arguments that do not convince Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The latter on Friday sharply criticized NATO’s new refusal, denouncing a form of “self-hypnosis” by members of the Alliance.
“Today, the leadership of the Alliance gave the green light to the continuation of the bombing of Ukrainian cities and villages, refusing to create a no-fly zone,” he said in a video published by the Presidium of Ukraine.
“We believe that the NATO countries themselves have created a narrative that a no-fly zone over Ukraine will provoke direct Russian aggression against NATO,” he said. “This is a self-hypnosis process for those who are weak, in a state of inner uncertainty, while they have weapons much more powerful than ours,” the Ukrainian president added.
“What were you thinking during this meeting? All those people who will die from today will also die because of you. Because of your weakness, because of your disunity,” he said, assessing this NATO meeting as “weak” and “confusing.”
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