SIMON LANDREIN FOR M LE MAGAZINE DU MONDE
Iran specialists are not very numerous in France, where exploration of the Arab world has long been considered the most prestigious in the eyes of researchers and diplomats. It must also be said that since the 1979 revolution, the Islamic Republic has known how to discourage the best intentions, refusing visas on one day or applying more or less aggressive pressure on another. However, the most persistent have managed to set up an address book in Tehran or in the country’s provinces that will help them find their way through the labyrinth of this opaque regime. “Iran is a black box,” they repeat, using the usual formula.
But since Iran’s streets rose up in response to the September 16 death of young Mahsa Amini after his arrest by vice squads, the sources have remained silent. For fear of speaking out on the phone, for fear of spying by the authorities, at a time when repression is hitting mercilessly, with more than 400 dead and thousands arrested. Going there yourself is illusory at best, suicidal at worst: seven French people, including academics, are currently in prison. “Arbitrary arrests,” said Secretary of State Catherine Colonna. In this context, how is one to understand what drives Iranian power? How to read the decisions of a regime that is often hermetic to outside views? The difficulty is not from today.
Which foot to dance on
“We don’t understand much, we have little information about this regime,” agreed former chief of French diplomacy Laurent Fabius, signatory to the Iran nuclear deal, in 2015. There are groups, sub-groups, factions, the old, the new, the toughest, the less tough…” Ever since the announcement on April 4 of the alleged abolition of the vice squad. The paranoia of the leaders of the Islamic Republic, who are convinced that the The revolt being fomented by foreign powers – led by the United States – is being exacerbated. This makes maintaining high-level contacts in Tehran more difficult.
Emmanuel Macron himself doesn’t always seem to know which foot to dance on. When the first demonstrations broke out on September 20, the head of state met his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raïsi on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. A tough guy, elected in June 2021 after a long – and repressive – career in the judiciary.
You still have 81.93% of this article to read. The following is for subscribers only.