How badly will the Qatargate scandal weigh on the Democratic Party? The question will be answered by the two pollsters Renato Mannheimer and Antonio Noto. “The Qatargate scandal will cost the Democratic Party dearly for a variety of reasons. First, because the Democratic Party, like much of the left, has built its identity on the moral notion of anthropological superiority. The average of the last polls is between 14 and 15 percent for the Democratic Party today,” says Mannheimer and then explains, “Qatargate shows that elements of corruption can be present in all parties. In doing so, she brings down a certain image of the left. Meanwhile, in a party torn by crisis and internal strife, there seems to be no reaction and the scandal is being treated as if it were an individual. So there is a structural problem, Enrico Letta, swept along by the currents, does not have the strength to react. There are two elements being triggered in the Democratic Party crisis that someone claims risks falling to 10%, but making these predictions – still pollster verdicts – is very little serious”.
Noto separates the corruption scandal from the Dem’s negative figures: “The crisis in the Democratic Party cannot be traced back to the Qatar scandal. The Democratic Party has been in crisis before, winning 19 percent in last September’s election and falling to 17 percent in November. Now, after the scandal, it’s fluctuating around 16%, so it’s down 1%. That means Qatargate has had an impact, but limited, marginal.”
Noto then draws a line between the ‘disappointment’ and ‘party change’ fronts: ‘One does not imply the other. On the one hand, the Democratic Party’s motivating power towards its electorate and its aggregation power to new voters is decreasing, so that the disappointment among the Dem electorate affects about 80% of their electorate. On the other hand, leaving the party after Qatargate affects only 1% of their voters. In fact, the disappointed voter does not switch parties overnight, times are long.” Who lost the 3% that the Pd lost? Noto explains the flow like this: “2% went to the 5 stars, 1% abstained. Looking ahead, there could be the same proportions, 2/3 of the votes that left the Democratic Party could go to the Pentastellati. Now we need to understand how the investigation will continue and whether new political subjects will be born. The new Pd secretary will have to consider how he can continue to motivate the disappointed, because there is a risk that disappointed voters will recognize themselves in another party. That’s the real problem today.”