This time, it is not easy to predict the half-yearly return as of November 30 of our two employee-sponsored funds, Fonds de solidarité FTQ and Fondaction CSN.
On the other hand, thanks to a successful month in November, the FTQ and Fondaction funds are likely to do slightly better both on the stock market and on the bond market than the cumulative return over the first five months of the semester.
In November, equity markets ended the month with significant gains ranging from 5.5% (for Toronto and New York) to 10% and more in Europe, Asia and emerging markets. In addition, the bond indices also recorded solid price gains.
In the past few months, the financial markets had experienced rather difficult times, in particular due to sharply rising interest rates and the associated risks of recession.
Very difficult predictions
Was the good performance in November enough to offset the losses that may have accumulated in the previous months of the semester? I admit that it is very difficult to predict the outcome.
For this reason, it’s exceptionally impossible for me to recommend to shareholders who can get their marbles out of the two worker-funded funds before the new share price is announced whether or not to do so.
At the previous semi-annual review of share prices as at 31 May, Fonds de solidarité FTQ had reported a 5.7% fall in its share price and Fondaction CSN a 8.7% fall.
The main indicators
In addition to holding many private securities in their portfolios, since work-financed funds invest more than half of their respective assets in development capital, performance comparisons with mainstream financial markets serve only to provide insight into potential returns. Nothing more.
Here then, according to data compiled by Aubin Actuaire, the half-yearly return in Canadian dollars as of November 30 of the main stock market indices:
- Toronto S&P/TSX: +0.3%
- New York S&P 500: +6.4%
- MSCI World (ex US): +2.9%
- MSCI Emerging Markets: -1.5%
For their part, bond indices remained in good or almost good shape over the period 1 June to 30 November.
Quebec indices
As for Quebec stock market indexes, the IQ30 of large Quebec companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange rose about 3.7% for the half year.
The IQ-120 index, which includes 120 Quebec companies, rose nearly 1.8%.
Another interesting indicator: the Exchange Traded Fund QXM (CI Morningstar Ntn’l Bk Quebec Idx ETF). The latter was up 4.7% in the six months ended November 30.
As you can see, the “Benchmark” indicators are positive.
With the exception of the S&P Venture Index for growth stocks listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
From June to November, this index of small Canadian companies saw a significant decline of 19.6%.
