French voters will decide who will be the country’s next president on Sunday (24th) in the second round between current leader Emmanuel Macron and farright candidate Marine Le Pen. But regardless of who is elected, relations between France and Brazil which has been rocked by disagreements between Macron and President Jair Bolsonaro is not likely to rebound anytime soon, experts heard by RFI Brasil estimate.
Christophe Ventura, research director at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (Iris) in Paris, where he specializes in Latin American geopolitics, points out that Macron has never shown any interest in Latin American countries more broadly.
- Le Pen’s allies face criticism and reject the proposal to ban the veil worn by Muslim women in France
- How contestant Marine Le Pen transformed her image to embody a French mother who loves her cats
“Compared to his predecessors, Macron’s first term in office was characterized by a distant relationship with Latin America. With the exception of a trip to Buenos Aires, which he made as part of a G20 meeting and not for an official visit, Macron did not go to Latin America, he has not developed any concrete projects with the region.”
Likewise, the farright candidate simply ignores the issue. Le Pen’s foreign policy is limited to promoting immigration control and national sovereignty over the rest of the world, including the United States.
“In Latin America, Marine Le Pen only sees the French territories, French Guiana, the Antilles, in the Caribbean, where she was during the election campaign. But beyond that, it’s a mystery,” Ventura commented on that region of the world and I think Latin America is not an issue for them.”
2 of 3 Marine Le Pe, farright candidate, exits the voting booth at 10am on Sunday morning Photo: Pascal Rossignol/Reuters
Marine Le Pe, farright candidate, leaves the voting booth at 10am on Sunday morning Photo: Pascal Rossignol/Reuters
Only changes if Bolsonaro leaves
Antônio Jorge Ramalho Rocha, Professor of International Relations at UnB, agrees that Latin America has become “marginal” for European interests, but recalls that France’s largest border is with Brazil, in French Guiana. “There are problems that are arising in our region and that will make themselves felt in France in one way or another,” he says.
Despite this, political distance tends to remain, especially if Macron and Bolsonaro remain in power, as Brazilians also go to the polls this year. In 2019, record deforestation in the Amazon led the two presidents to a series of barbs that left France and Brazil in their deepest estrangement in decades. Since then, bilateral relations within governments have been “in automatic mode” limited to intense trade and the cultural and historical ties that bind the two countries.
“The rapprochement will only happen if Bolsonaro leaves the Planalto. France has maintained its coherence in foreign policy. It was Brazil that changed course,” emphasizes the professor. “Part of the agenda that France defends is the traditional agenda of the Brazilian foreign policy, respect for multilateralism and human rights, peaceful settlement of disputes. Since the Bolsonaro government, Brazil has started to act against its tradition and common sense in several respects,” he stresses.
Red carpet for Lula
But the scenario should be different if Brasília changes course in the next presidential election in October. Ventura says Macron hopes for better dialogue with Brazil when former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returns to power, particularly on the environmental agenda. In November, Lula was in Paris and was greeted with a presidential expression by the French head of state.
3 of 3 Former President Lula meets French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris this Wednesday (17) — Photo: Ricardo Stuckert/Reproduction/Twitter
Former President Lula meets French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris this Wednesday (17) — Photo: Ricardo Stuckert/Reproduction/Twitter
“In my opinion, it is clear that if Lula returns to the presidency of Brazil, France will be one of the first countries to officially invite him,” the French expert bet on Bild, to show that he has the best possible relations with greatest leader of the Latin American left, as in France he strives to maintain the image he rules between left and right although in practice he is increasingly rightwing. So it will be interesting for him to show up next to Lula,” he analyses.
Marine Le Pen, in turn, even tried to reach out to Bolsonaro after the extreme right leader was elected in 2018. But in the face of the president’s antiFrance comments, he soon distanced himself from the Brazilian.
Christophe Ventura estimates that both are, among other things, “the product of the economic and social crisis, widespread and growing distrust of institutions and democracy”. But important differences stand in their way Le Pen explained that Bolsonaro made “awkward comments that cannot be transferred to the French context” and argued that Brazil “has a different culture”.
“There’s a rejection of globalism that Le Pen made in this final leg of the campaign in defense of the Christian West in the face of cultural and religious threats, the idea of a clash of cultures, rejection of Muslims and minority rights, some similarities I think not that the relationship between Marine Le Pen and Jair Bolsonaro has developed in recent years,” says Ventura.
From an economic point of view, Le Pen’s more nationalist vision would potentially harm Brazil. The candidate is an outspoken critic of the European Union and globalization in both respects her worldview is damaging to international trade. Apparently she is against the trade deal between Mercosur and the European Union, which would benefit Brazilian exports of agricultural products to the European bloc.
“The issue of agricultural protectionism will speak much louder. This is their audience: most of their constituents are in deep France. It would be very difficult to move this agreement forward,” says Ramalho Rocha. “But the fact is that the agreement will definitely not come about as long as Bolsonaro is in power. That’s very clear. It’s not about Le Pen or Macron: it’s about a very strong reaction from European societies.” on the positions of Brazilian companies in relation to a number of policies, especially environmental policies,” he points out.