Updated on 12/22/2022 at 6:58 pm
- President Putin has long avoided official foreign travel and now traveled to Minsk earlier this week.
- What is the meeting about? Is Belarus’ entry into the war imminent?
- An expert on Russia provides answers and refers to a phrase after the meeting that caught on.
This text contains a classification of current events, which, in addition to data and facts, also includes the assessments of Marie Illner and, if necessary, experts. Know the different types of journalistic texts.
It was a trip that caused a stir: On Monday, Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin met his last loyal ally in Europe. He was welcomed by Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko on the red carpet in Minsk.
For Putin, it was the first official trip abroad in a long time. He was last in Belarus three years ago, and negotiations always took place in Moscow or Sochi. The meeting was therefore viewed with skepticism, particularly by Ukraine. The concern: Putin could pressure Belarus into the war.
Will Belarus enter the war?
For example, Serhiy Nayev, Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said: “In our opinion, during this meeting, issues of increased aggression against Ukraine and broader participation of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus in the operation against Ukraine will be worked out. In our opinion, these are ground attacks,” says Najew.
In October, the two former Soviet states announced a joint military alliance. The combat force can include up to 9,000 Russian soldiers. So far, however, Minsk has not actively interfered in the fighting in Ukraine and has now again denied entering the war.
Death penalty for treason
Some observers consider this a ruse and interpret the tightening of the law in Belarus as a step towards participation in the war. The Belarusian House of Representatives passed a bill introducing the death penalty for treason for military and state officials.
After the meeting, initially not much was known about its contents. The heads of state spoke of “successful” and “constructive and productive” talks. An agreement was said to have been reached on the continuation of military maneuvers and the expansion of economic cooperation. The longtime heads of state have announced that Russia will train Belarusian air crews for possible deployments with nuclear weapons.
Attacks on Ukraine from Belarus
After the talks, Putin also reiterated that he “has no interest” in annexing neighboring Belarus, but referred to the close relationship between the “allies and strategic partners”. They are united by “a common history and spiritual values”. Belarus is the minority partner in the relationship and is heavily dependent on Russian oil and cheap credit.
During the war in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus, which made its military bases available for attacks on Ukraine, became even closer. Because the sanctions imposed by the West also affect Belarus. “Together, we can resist the sanctions of enemy states,” he said on Monday.
Expert: “Don’t overestimate the trip”
So what’s up with the meeting? “Basically, Putin’s trip to Belarus should not be overstated,” says Russia expert Lisa Gürth. It should not be forgotten that Belarus is Russia’s only ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, therefore it is in Russia’s “traditional sphere of influence”, pro-war and actively supporting it. “So it’s quite surprising that this is Putin’s first visit to Belarus in three years,” says Gürth.
For now, she sees no signs of fundamentally new developments and refers to Dmitri Peskov, spokesman for the Russian president, who dismissed rumors that Belarus would enter the war as “foolish and unfounded inventions”. According to Gürth, military issues were discussed at the meeting, but despite several indications of greater Belarusian involvement, there is currently little indication of this.
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine was not directly addressed in public and other topics were explicitly discussed, including plans to send Belarusian cosmonauts into space,” says Gürth.
joke phrase
However, she took note of one sentence in particular. “Lukashenko jokingly said at the press conference about Putin’s visit that he and Putin are the two most harmful and toxic people on this planet and that they just argued about who was worse,” says Gürth. Then they would have decided to split the position. “However, there is more to this apparent joke than the two may realize,” says the expert.
The Belarusian government is Russia’s most important ally and the only one in Europe, but not the Belarusian people. During the 2020 protests, she clearly showed that she did not support Lukashenko’s course.
“That’s why Lukashenko continues to walk a fine line between clear support for Putin and demonstrated independence for Belarus,” analyzes Gürth. For the moment it seems to be working, so Lukashenko is certainly right with this statement from the press conference for now: “If anyone thinks they can tear us apart today, then it won’t work.”
About the specialist:
Lisa Gurth is Deputy Head of the Russia Program at the Friedrich-Ebert Foundation (FES).
Updated on 12/22/2022 at 8:32 am
The lower house of the Russian parliament draws consequences for “saboteurs” in the conflict in Ukraine. Thus, those affected should be punished more severely.