The new President of the Italian Council is not the dangerous post-fascist decried by her opponents. In the exercise of the state, it proves to be technical, pragmatic, even conciliatory. And the Ocean Viking crisis has shown that it can defend its ideas without abandoning the European framework.
On 25th October, the day after Giorgia Meloni’s general policy speech in Parliament, 44% of Italians expressed their confidence in the new President of the Council.[1] Just a few months ago, nobody would have bet on such a membership. Meloni surprises and reshuffles the cards of Italian sovereignty. It destabilizes European observers and urges them to change their lexicon: now in power, an unexpected strategist emerges behind the political predator who can no longer be reduced to the courtship interventions of her campaign.
An amazing increase
At the end of September’s general elections, the right-wing coalition won 43.8% of the vote and Giorgia Meloni’s party, Fratelli d’Italia, took first place with 26% of the vote, up from 4.3% in 2018. She is with her allies Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, whose longevity borders on science fiction, and Matteo Salvini’s Lega, which won just 8.9% of voters versus 18% four years earlier. “No surprises. But Salvini took a good beating anyway,” notes Marco, who runs Bar Rialto in central Venice, where political news is commented on every morning. Around him, we gloss over the effect of communicating vessels. “La Meloni” siphoning his ex-competitor’s votes with a skill that leaves you speechless.Once considered more outrageous than Salvini, she took the turn of seriousness while refusing to take part in Mario Draghi’s previous multi-party government, unlike the Lega, thus disappointing its electorate.The Italians gave the advantage to the only anti-system party: Fratelli d’Italia.Salvini and Meloni, both staunch sovereignists, have always opposed Brussels technocracy.But Meloni did not do it in favor of Russia , in contrast to Salvini, whose party received Russian funds repeatedly criticized by the Italian press were tized. She approached Poland by championing a Catholic Europe; and it approved the sanctions against Russia, which claimed to be NATO. After all, unlike Salvini, she doesn’t know the legal setbacks that deprive the Lega boss of the interior ministry he aspired to. “Meloni is the only one who doesn’t carry pans,” Marco tells us.
The Eternal Italian Crisis
The victory of the new President of the Council is the result of an endemic crisis in which successive governments have proved powerless. In recent years, the big parties have all taken over, with the promises and disappointments that come with it. Only the Fratelli d’Italia avoided responsibility. “We had never tried Meloni: let’s see what happens”. The argument is repeated among disaffected voters. The stakes are high: Italy needs reforms. But how do you reform a country that has seen 68 consecutive governments since 1946? The nature of the parliamentary system and Italian voting lead to the need to govern by coalition. But coalitions don’t last long; their brevity promotes the nomadism of the voters. In theory, the current alliance is elected for five years. But who can claim today that egos as disparate as Berlusconi and Salvini will long be under the control of a woman like Giorgia Meloni? Aware of the weaknesses of the parliamentary constitution, the President-in-Office of the Council has positioned herself in favor of presidentialization of the system with the election of the head of state by universal and direct suffrage. But the reform is hardly feasible.
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In this context, the European Union has granted Italy a quarter of the post-Covid recovery plan: 191 billion euros out of a total of 750. The country is thus the best endowed in the eurozone. However, the payment schedule is dependent on the famous reforms. Giorgia Meloni has thus transformed the situation from radical Euroscepticism to a skilful plea for a confederal Europe. When she came to power she unveiled an ideological project more subtle than her campaign slogans.
From the ideology…
Like the majority of European sovereignist parties, Fratelli d’Italia intends to respect democratic institutions scrupulously and is proving it. Giorgia Meloni’s project puts the epithets of the last century to the test: shelved, the obsolete “post-fascism” and “extreme right”. Fascism enforced the exercise of power by force and coercion. In calling for the Italians to directly elect the President of the Republic, Meloni is more democratic than the Democrats. Admittedly, one cannot deny the populist leanings of his last campaign, in a country where rhetoric is about emotion. But two weeks after her election, she clarified: “Don’t be afraid of the mainstream narrative because the good news is that people don’t accept a self-serving narrative. They want to go to the sources of information without mediation. They want to understand and listen, and when they listen to us, they understand that we are anything but monsters.” Clearly, once his government is in place, Meloni will turn out to be a lot less epidermal and soupy than one might have thought . She looks past the tip of her nose.
Since the crisis of 2008, seven Council Presidents have succeeded them, always with the aim of radical change in the short term. All were crushed by the system. A new cycle begins with Meloni. It institutionalizes its position nationally and internationally and, contrary to the announcement, governs not only liberally, but also more technically than politically. Meloni wants to stay at the top for a long time. Antonio Tajani, their foreign minister and vice-president of the Council, is just as pro-European as their economy minister, Giancarlo Giorgetti. Salvini is relegated to infrastructure and the insolent to subordinate positions. So it is with the two presidents of the chambers, pillars of the campaign, whose room for maneuver is now limited.
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Unlike her predecessors in power, Meloni is Roman and non-establishment. She better understands the slow and complex rhythms of an Italian system compared to the papal administration. Faced with the thorny European equation that requires compensation for the recovery plan, the new Council President declared: “My vision of Europe is that of a confederal Europe, where the principle of subsidiarity applies. Brussels does not do what Rome can do better, Rome does not act where it cannot compete on its own. Europe is invasive on the small matters and absent on the big ones. Wouldn’t it be better to leave the discussion about the Vongole diameter to the national states and instead deal with energy supply at EU level? »
In practice…
First tension, the crisis of the Ocean Viking migrants. Meloni did not compromise with the recurring target of his campaign: Emmanuel Macron, who is very badly perceived in Italy for his condescending accusations during the last crisis of this kind (that of Aquarius in 2018) and for the clumsy interventionist remarks of his secretary State Laurence Boone after the Fratelli d’Italia win. The warmth of the short Macron-Meloni Tete-a-Tete on October 23 in Rome fizzled out. After Italy’s refusal to take on the Ocean Viking’s 234 migrants and the boat’s arrival in Toulon, France thought it could take on its neighbor with the rest of Europe in this new showdown. Gérald Darmanin rushed to accuse him of “not behaving as a responsible European country” while also announcing the suspension of the relocation in France of 3,500 refugees located in Italy – a relocation made possible by the mechanism finalized at European level in June is scheduled for 10 after 21 months of negotiations between the 27 member states. The Meloni government condemned a disproportionate response and reiterated its desire to find a solution at European level, in contrast to Poles and Hungarians, who defend national migration policies. Antonio Tajani, head of Italian diplomacy, wants “a real European Marshall Plan for Africa and agreements with Libya, Tunisia, Morocco, Niger and the other countries of the Sahel”. And Italy finds attentive ears in Brussels: Manfred Weber, (German) leader of the centre-right group of the EPP in the European Parliament, travels to Rome to propose solutions and Ylva Johansson, EU Commissioner for Home Affairs, receives the Italian Minister of the Interior Matteo Piantedosi. So Melonist Italy is not being ostracized as the French hoped, and the face-to-face meetings between the President of the Council and Joe Biden and Xi Jinping during the G20 confirmed that the country is far from isolated. At the moment, the Meloni strategy is bearing fruit at international level.
“Chi va piano va sano e va lontano”
At the beginning and end of the last century, Italy invented fascism on the one hand and the media-capitalist matador with Berlusconi on the other. Giorgia Meloni offers a new model. Who would have announced that the populist predator, once in power, would be tipped in the direction of their new policies by their predecessor, the highly respected Mario Draghi? Italy has no more margin for error. In view of the need for reform, however, Meloni’s economic program is irritating: it envisages tax cuts for companies and households and announces an increase in government spending in favor of industrial protectionism. It should be noted that there is a lack of arms in Italy, which is hardly compatible with the new coalition’s migration policy: immigration now accounts for 10% of the labor force.
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In the tension between reality and her election promises, will Giorgia Meloni succeed where her predecessors failed? The first measures taken by his government do not seem to be able to cope with the situation: raising the cash withdrawal limit to allow Italians to go back to their old ways, tax credits for companies on energy expenditure… Admittedly, we are announcing a future Wage increases to stimulate the economy through consumption, but no structural reforms for the time being. The coming months will tell us if Giorgia Meloni knows how not to disappoint her constituents and if the two big stones in her shoe, Berlusconi and Salvini, will not surpass her long-term ambitions.
[1]. Demopolis poll of October 27, 2022.